How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ?wisdom of the crowd Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services.

The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes.

This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

Against a background of extraordinary growth in the popularity of betting and gaming across many countries of the world, there has never been a greater need for a study into gambling's most important factor - its economics.
This collection of original contributions drawn from such leading experts as David Peel, Stephen Creigh-Tyte, Raymond Sauer and Donald Siegel covers such interesting themes as:
*betting on the horses
*over-under betting in football games
*national lotteries and lottery fatigue
*demand for gambling
*economic impact of casino gambling
This timely and comprehensive book covers all the bases of the economics of gambling and is a valuable and important contribution to the ongoing and growing debates. The Economics of Gambling will be of use to academics and students of applied, industrial and mathematical economics as well as of being vital reading for those involved and interested in the gambling industry.

In recent years there has been a substantial global increase in interest in the study of gambling. To some extent this has mirrored seismic changes in the way that betting and gaming markets worldwide are taxed and regulated. This has heightened interest in a wide range of issues related to this sector including its regulation, public policy and commercial strategy as well as the ideal structure of gambling taxes and devising optimal responses to environmental changes, such as the growth of online gambling. This volume, by bringing together the work of leading scholars, will cover the spectrum of such perspectives, as well as examining the efficiency of betting markets, to provide an assessment of developments and current understanding in the study of the economics of gambling. This timely collection will be an immensely valuable resource for academics, policy-makers, those commercially involved in the betting and gaming sectors as well as the interested layman.

Against a background of extraordinary growth in the popularity of betting and gaming across many countries of the world, there has never been a greater need for a study into gambling's most important factor - its economics.
This collection of original contributions drawn from such leading experts as David Peel, Stephen Creigh-Tyte, Raymond Sauer and Donald Siegel covers such interesting themes as:
*betting on the horses
*over-under betting in football games
*national lotteries and lottery fatigue
*demand for gambling
*economic impact of casino gambling
This timely and comprehensive book covers all the bases of the economics of gambling and is a valuable and important contribution to the ongoing and growing debates. The Economics of Gambling will be of use to academics and students of applied, industrial and mathematical economics as well as of being vital reading for those involved and interested in the gambling industry.

How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the 'wisdom of the crowd'? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

There is growing interest among academics and policymakers in the economics of gambling, which has been stimulated by major regulatory and tax changes in the U.S., U.K. Continental Europe, Asia, Australia and elsewhere. Unfortunately, there is no comprehensive source of path-breaking research on this topic. To fill this gap, we commissioned chapters from leading economists on all aspects of gambling research. Topics covered include the optimal taxation structure for various forms of gambling, factors influencing the demand and supply of gambling services, forecasting of gambling trends, regulation of gambling, the efficiency of racetrack and sports betting markets, gambling prevalence and behavior, modeling the demand for gambling services, the economic impact of gambling, substitution and complementarities among different types of gambling activity, and the relationship between gambling and other sectors of the economy. These are all important issues, with significant global implications. Specifically, we divide the Handbook into sections on casinos, sports betting, horserace betting, betting strategy, motivation, behavior and decision-making in betting markets, prediction markets and political betting, and lotteries and gambling machines

The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.

The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.