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This volume marks the end of an eight-year program of research on
population issues, launched in 1990 by the Netherlands Organization
for Scientific Research: The NWO Priority Program on Population
Issues. Initiatives for this program of research were taken over
ten years ago by Hans Van Ginkel-who became the first program chair
- and Dirk Van De Kaa. The Dutch community of population scientists
is deeply indebted to them for their early efforts. At the time,
the program carried the name "Between Individual Development and
Social Solidarity: Pop ulation and Society in a Period of
Transition. " The goals of the Priority Program were threefold: To
reduce the fragmentation of research on population issues; to
increase collabora tion among population researchers with different
disciplinary back grounds; and to strengthen the position of
population studies in Dutch academe and in international forums.
Looking back over eight years of programed research, we can safely
say that the Priority Program has given an enormous impetus to
population research in the Netherlands - as this volume attests.
This program of research could not have been carried out success
fully without the valuable contributions and constructive input of
a large group of scientists. The scope and the focus of the
Priority Program were defined by a preparatory committee chaired by
Gerard Frinking."
Future demographic developments in Europe will be caused by the
specific economic, social and cultural context, and will, in turn,
have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To
the extent that demographic trends differ across countries,
separate countries may face different social and economic problems.
As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is
important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic
developments at an early stage. Within the European context, the
question can be raised whether the socioeconomic and cultural
dimensions of society are dominated by convergent or divergent
forces, and what the consequences are of these assumed convergent
or divergent tendencies for long-term future demographic
developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no
unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two
alternative scenarios for Europe's future population. In the
Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will
eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and
cultural differences exist across Europe. Trends in fertility and
mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over time
patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different
initial states. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity
scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic
characteristics remain significantly different across countries.
This book is the result of close collaboration between researchers
from the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
and Statistics Netherlands (SN). Although the project was a joint
effort by all researchers involved, the book has assumed the form
of an edited volume, with separate chapters by small groups of
authors. The authors are, of course, responsible for writing their
own contributions, but they were often involved to a certain extent
in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.
In 1992, a summer course 'Demographic Perspectives on Living
Arrangements' as well as a one-day workshop 'Recent Issues in
Household Modelling' were held in Wassenaar, The Netherlands. This
volume is based on the lectures delivered during the summer course,
as well as on the presentations made in the workshop. As such, the
present volume combines the two elements of transfer of knowledge,
on the one hand, and updating the state-of-the-art in the field of
household demography, especially in household modelling, on the
other hand. In organizing the contents and structure of this
volume, we have aimed at creating a book that covers the field of
household demography and household modelling in a certain logical
and comprehensive way. The purpose of this book is to offer a
comprehensive treatment of recent developments in various aspects
of the growing field of household demography. Since these recent
developments have particularly occurred in household analysis and
modelling, these topics will receive special emphasis. The book was
written for demographers, social scientists, and planners who are
involved in the study and projection of popUlation in general, and
of households in particular.
This volume marks the end of an eight-year program of research on
population issues, launched in 1990 by the Netherlands Organization
for Scientific Research: The NWO Priority Program on Population
Issues. Initiatives for this program of research were taken over
ten years ago by Hans Van Ginkel-who became the first program chair
- and Dirk Van De Kaa. The Dutch community of population scientists
is deeply indebted to them for their early efforts. At the time,
the program carried the name "Between Individual Development and
Social Solidarity: Pop ulation and Society in a Period of
Transition. " The goals of the Priority Program were threefold: To
reduce the fragmentation of research on population issues; to
increase collabora tion among population researchers with different
disciplinary back grounds; and to strengthen the position of
population studies in Dutch academe and in international forums.
Looking back over eight years of programed research, we can safely
say that the Priority Program has given an enormous impetus to
population research in the Netherlands - as this volume attests.
This program of research could not have been carried out success
fully without the valuable contributions and constructive input of
a large group of scientists. The scope and the focus of the
Priority Program were defined by a preparatory committee chaired by
Gerard Frinking."
Future demographic developments in Europe will be caused by the
specific economic, social and cultural context, and will, in turn,
have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To
the extent that demographic trends differ across countries,
separate countries may face different social and economic problems.
As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is
important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic
developments at an early stage. Within the European context, the
question can be raised whether the socioeconomic and cultural
dimensions of society are dominated by convergent or divergent
forces, and what the consequences are of these assumed convergent
or divergent tendencies for long-term future demographic
developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no
unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two
alternative scenarios for Europe's future population. In the
Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will
eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and
cultural differences exist across Europe. Trends in fertility and
mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over time
patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different
initial states. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity
scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic
characteristics remain significantly different across countries.
This book is the result of close collaboration between researchers
from the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
and Statistics Netherlands (SN). Although the project was a joint
effort by all researchers involved, the book has assumed the form
of an edited volume, with separate chapters by small groups of
authors. The authors are, of course, responsible for writing their
own contributions, but they were often involved to a certain extent
in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.
In 1992, a summer course 'Demographic Perspectives on Living
Arrangements' as well as a one-day workshop 'Recent Issues in
Household Modelling' were held in Wassenaar, The Netherlands. This
volume is based on the lectures delivered during the summer course,
as well as on the presentations made in the workshop. As such, the
present volume combines the two elements of transfer of knowledge,
on the one hand, and updating the state-of-the-art in the field of
household demography, especially in household modelling, on the
other hand. In organizing the contents and structure of this
volume, we have aimed at creating a book that covers the field of
household demography and household modelling in a certain logical
and comprehensive way. The purpose of this book is to offer a
comprehensive treatment of recent developments in various aspects
of the growing field of household demography. Since these recent
developments have particularly occurred in household analysis and
modelling, these topics will receive special emphasis. The book was
written for demographers, social scientists, and planners who are
involved in the study and projection of popUlation in general, and
of households in particular.
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