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Europe: One Continent, Different Worlds - Population Scenarios for the 21st Century (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1999)
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Europe: One Continent, Different Worlds - Population Scenarios for the 21st Century (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1999)
Series: European Studies of Population, 7
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Future demographic developments in Europe will be caused by the
specific economic, social and cultural context, and will, in turn,
have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To
the extent that demographic trends differ across countries,
separate countries may face different social and economic problems.
As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is
important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic
developments at an early stage. Within the European context, the
question can be raised whether the socioeconomic and cultural
dimensions of society are dominated by convergent or divergent
forces, and what the consequences are of these assumed convergent
or divergent tendencies for long-term future demographic
developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no
unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two
alternative scenarios for Europe's future population. In the
Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will
eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and
cultural differences exist across Europe. Trends in fertility and
mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over time
patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different
initial states. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity
scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic
characteristics remain significantly different across countries.
This book is the result of close collaboration between researchers
from the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
and Statistics Netherlands (SN). Although the project was a joint
effort by all researchers involved, the book has assumed the form
of an edited volume, with separate chapters by small groups of
authors. The authors are, of course, responsible for writing their
own contributions, but they were often involved to a certain extent
in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.
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