Bayesian Analysis of Infectious Diseases -COVID-19 and Beyond shows how the Bayesian approach can be used to analyze the evolutionary behavior of infectious diseases, including the coronavirus pandemic. The book describes the foundation of Bayesian statistics while explicating the biology and evolutionary behavior of infectious diseases, including viral and bacterial manifestations of the contagion. The book discusses the application of Markov Chains to contagious diseases, previews data analysis models, the epidemic threshold theorem, and basic properties of the infection process. Also described are the chain binomial model for the evolution of epidemics. Features: Represents the first book on infectious disease from a Bayesian perspective. Employs WinBUGS and R to generate observations that follow the course of contagious maladies. Includes discussion of the coronavirus pandemic as well as many examples from the past, including the flu epidemic of 1918-1919. Compares standard non-Bayesian and Bayesian inferences. Offers the R and WinBUGS code on at www.routledge.com/9780367633868

In many branches of science relevant observations are taken sequentially over time. Bayesian Analysis of Time Series discusses how to use models that explain the probabilistic characteristics of these time series and then utilizes the Bayesian approach to make inferences about their parameters. This is done by taking the prior information and via Bayes theorem implementing Bayesian inferences of estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction. The methods are demonstrated using both R and WinBUGS. The R package is primarily used to generate observations from a given time series model, while the WinBUGS packages allows one to perform a posterior analysis that provides a way to determine the characteristic of the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. Features Presents a comprehensive introduction to the Bayesian analysis of time series. Gives many examples over a wide variety of fields including biology, agriculture, business, economics, sociology, and astronomy. Contains numerous exercises at the end of each chapter many of which use R and WinBUGS. Can be used in graduate courses in statistics and biostatistics, but is also appropriate for researchers, practitioners and consulting statisticians. About the author Lyle D. Broemeling, Ph.D., is Director of Broemeling and Associates Inc., and is a consulting biostatistician. He has been involved with academic health science centers for about 20 years and has taught and been a consultant at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Texas School of Public Health. His main interest is in developing Bayesian methods for use in medical and biological problems and in authoring textbooks in statistics. His previous books for Chapman & Hall/CRC include Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine, and Bayesian Methods for Agreement.

Bayesian Analysis of Infectious Diseases -COVID-19 and Beyond shows how the Bayesian approach can be used to analyze the evolutionary behavior of infectious diseases, including the coronavirus pandemic. The book describes the foundation of Bayesian statistics while explicating the biology and evolutionary behavior of infectious diseases, including viral and bacterial manifestations of the contagion. The book discusses the application of Markov Chains to contagious diseases, previews data analysis models, the epidemic threshold theorem, and basic properties of the infection process. Also described are the chain binomial model for the evolution of epidemics. Features: Represents the first book on infectious disease from a Bayesian perspective. Employs WinBUGS and R to generate observations that follow the course of contagious maladies. Includes discussion of the coronavirus pandemic as well as many examples from the past, including the flu epidemic of 1918-1919. Compares standard non-Bayesian and Bayesian inferences. Offers the R and WinBUGS code on at www.routledge.com/9780367633868

Useful in many areas of medicine and biology, Bayesian methods are particularly attractive tools for the design of clinical trials and diagnostic tests, which are based on established information, usually from related previous studies. Advanced Bayesian Methods for Medical Test Accuracy begins with a review of the usual measures such as specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive value, and the area under the ROC curve. Then the scope expands to cover the more advanced topics of verification bias, diagnostic tests with imperfect gold standards, and those for which no gold standard is available. Promoting accuracy and efficiency of clinical trials, tests, and the diagnostic process, this book: Enables the user to efficiently apply prior information via a WinBUGS package Presents many ideas for the first time and goes far beyond the two standard references Integrates reader agreement with different modalities-X-ray, CT Scanners, and more-to study their effect on medical test accuracy Provides practical chapter-end problems Useful for graduate students and consulting statisticians working in the various areas of diagnostic medicine and study design, this practical resource introduces the fundamentals of programming and executing BUGS, giving readers the tools and experience to successfully analyze studies for medical test accuracy.

There are numerous advantages to using Bayesian methods in diagnostic medicine, which is why they are employed more and more today in clinical studies. Exploring Bayesian statistics at an introductory level, Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine illustrates how to apply these methods to solve important problems in medicine and biology. After focusing on the wide range of areas where diagnostic medicine is used, the book introduces Bayesian statistics and the estimation of accuracy by sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for ordinal and continuous diagnostic measurements. The author then discusses patient covariate information and the statistical methods for estimating the agreement among observers. The book also explains the protocol review process for cancer clinical trials, how tumor responses are categorized, how to use WHO and RECIST criteria, and how Bayesian sequential methods are employed to monitor trials and estimate sample sizes. With many tables and figures, this book enables readers to conduct a Bayesian analysis for a large variety of interesting and practical biomedical problems.

Analyze Repeated Measures Studies Using Bayesian Techniques Going beyond standard non-Bayesian books, Bayesian Methods for Repeated Measures presents the main ideas for the analysis of repeated measures and associated designs from a Bayesian viewpoint. It describes many inferential methods for analyzing repeated measures in various scientific areas, especially biostatistics. The author takes a practical approach to the analysis of repeated measures. He bases all the computing and analysis on the WinBUGS package, which provides readers with a platform that efficiently uses prior information. The book includes the WinBUGS code needed to implement posterior analysis and offers the code for download online. Accessible to both graduate students in statistics and consulting statisticians, the book introduces Bayesian regression techniques, preliminary concepts and techniques fundamental to the analysis of repeated measures, and the most important topic for repeated measures studies: linear models. It presents an in-depth explanation of estimating the mean profile for repeated measures studies, discusses choosing and estimating the covariance structure of the response, and expands the representation of a repeated measure to general mixed linear models. The author also explains the Bayesian analysis of categorical response data in a repeated measures study, Bayesian analysis for repeated measures when the mean profile is nonlinear, and a Bayesian approach to missing values in the response variable.

This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.

Written by a biostatistics expert with over 20 years of experience in the field, Bayesian Methods in Epidemiology presents statistical methods used in epidemiology from a Bayesian viewpoint. It employs the software package WinBUGS to carry out the analyses and offers the code in the text and for download online. The book examines study designs that investigate the association between exposure to risk factors and the occurrence of disease. It covers introductory adjustment techniques to compare mortality between states and regression methods to study the association between various risk factors and disease, including logistic regression, simple and multiple linear regression, categorical/ordinal regression, and nonlinear models. The text also introduces a Bayesian approach for the estimation of survival by life tables and illustrates other approaches to estimate survival, including a parametric model based on the Weibull distribution and the Cox proportional hazards (nonparametric) model. Using Bayesian methods to estimate the lead time of the modality, the author explains how to screen for a disease among individuals that do not exhibit any symptoms of the disease. With many examples and end-of-chapter exercises, this book is the first to introduce epidemiology from a Bayesian perspective. It shows epidemiologists how these Bayesian models and techniques are useful in studying the association between disease and exposure to risk factors.

Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process. The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation. With examples throughout and end-of-chapter exercises, it discusses how to successfully design and analyze an agreement study.

Useful in many areas of medicine and biology, Bayesian methods are particularly attractive tools for the design of clinical trials and diagnostic tests, which are based on established information, usually from related previous studies. Advanced Bayesian Methods for Medical Test Accuracy begins with a review of the usual measures such as specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive value, and the area under the ROC curve. Then the scope expands to cover the more advanced topics of verification bias, diagnostic tests with imperfect gold standards, and those for which no gold standard is available.

Promoting accuracy and efficiency of clinical trials, tests, and the diagnostic process, this book:

• Enables the user to efficiently apply prior information via a WinBUGS package
• Presents many ideas for the first time and goes far beyond the two standard references
• Integrates reader agreement with different modalities X-ray, CT Scanners, and more to study their effect on medical test accuracy
• Provides practical chapter-end problems

Useful for graduate students and consulting statisticians working in the various areas of diagnostic medicine and study design, this practical resource introduces the fundamentals of programming and executing BUGS, giving readers the tools and experience to successfully analyze studies for medical test accuracy.

In many branches of science relevant observations are taken sequentially over time. Bayesian Analysis of Time Series discusses how to use models that explain the probabilistic characteristics of these time series and then utilizes the Bayesian approach to make inferences about their parameters. This is done by taking the prior information and via Bayes theorem implementing Bayesian inferences of estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction. The methods are demonstrated using both R and WinBUGS. The R package is primarily used to generate observations from a given time series model, while the WinBUGS packages allows one to perform a posterior analysis that provides a way to determine the characteristic of the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. Features Presents a comprehensive introduction to the Bayesian analysis of time series. Gives many examples over a wide variety of fields including biology, agriculture, business, economics, sociology, and astronomy. Contains numerous exercises at the end of each chapter many of which use R and WinBUGS. Can be used in graduate courses in statistics and biostatistics, but is also appropriate for researchers, practitioners and consulting statisticians. About the author Lyle D. Broemeling, Ph.D., is Director of Broemeling and Associates Inc., and is a consulting biostatistician. He has been involved with academic health science centers for about 20 years and has taught and been a consultant at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Texas School of Public Health. His main interest is in developing Bayesian methods for use in medical and biological problems and in authoring textbooks in statistics. His previous books for Chapman & Hall/CRC include Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine, and Bayesian Methods for Agreement.

Written by a biostatistics expert with over 20 years of experience in the field, Bayesian Methods in Epidemiology presents statistical methods used in epidemiology from a Bayesian viewpoint. It employs the software package WinBUGS to carry out the analyses and offers the code in the text and for download online. The book examines study designs that investigate the association between exposure to risk factors and the occurrence of disease. It covers introductory adjustment techniques to compare mortality between states and regression methods to study the association between various risk factors and disease, including logistic regression, simple and multiple linear regression, categorical/ordinal regression, and nonlinear models. The text also introduces a Bayesian approach for the estimation of survival by life tables and illustrates other approaches to estimate survival, including a parametric model based on the Weibull distribution and the Cox proportional hazards (nonparametric) model. Using Bayesian methods to estimate the lead time of the modality, the author explains how to screen for a disease among individuals that do not exhibit any symptoms of the disease. With many examples and end-of-chapter exercises, this book is the first to introduce epidemiology from a Bayesian perspective. It shows epidemiologists how these Bayesian models and techniques are useful in studying the association between disease and exposure to risk factors.

This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.

Analyze Repeated Measures Studies Using Bayesian Techniques Going beyond standard non-Bayesian books, Bayesian Methods for Repeated Measures presents the main ideas for the analysis of repeated measures and associated designs from a Bayesian viewpoint. It describes many inferential methods for analyzing repeated measures in various scientific areas, especially biostatistics. The author takes a practical approach to the analysis of repeated measures. He bases all the computing and analysis on the WinBUGS package, which provides readers with a platform that efficiently uses prior information. The book includes the WinBUGS code needed to implement posterior analysis and offers the code for download online. Accessible to both graduate students in statistics and consulting statisticians, the book introduces Bayesian regression techniques, preliminary concepts and techniques fundamental to the analysis of repeated measures, and the most important topic for repeated measures studies: linear models. It presents an in-depth explanation of estimating the mean profile for repeated measures studies, discusses choosing and estimating the covariance structure of the response, and expands the representation of a repeated measure to general mixed linear models. The author also explains the Bayesian analysis of categorical response data in a repeated measures study, Bayesian analysis for repeated measures when the mean profile is nonlinear, and a Bayesian approach to missing values in the response variable.