What do we know about the origins of the Universe, and more important, how do we know it? In a small, easy-to-read package, this book introduces you to all of the important ideas about the Big Bang and its consequences. Craig Hogan explains what happened in the early days of the universe, why we think it's expanding (and how the expansion can look the same from everyplace at once), different ways the universe could end, and the meaning of such terms as "cosmic inflation," "cosmic background radiation," and "dark matter." For everyone who has always wondered just what the cosmologists are talking about but could never find the basics explained clearly and simply, this is the book to read.

"Financial Modelling in Practice: A Concise Guide for Intermediate and Advanced Level" is a practical, comprehensive and in-depth guide to financial modelling designed to cover the modelling issues that are relevant to facilitate the construction of robust and readily understandable models.

Based on the authors extensive experience of building models in business and finance, and of training others how to do so this book starts with a review of Excel functions that are generally most relevant for building intermediate and advanced level models (such as Lookup functions, database and statistical functions and so on). It then discusses the principles involved in designing, structuring and building relevant, accurate and readily understandable models (including the use of sensitivity analysis techniques) before covering key application areas, such as the modelling of financial statements, of cash flow valuation, risk analysis, options and real options. Finally, the topic of financial modelling using VBA is treated. Practical examples are used throughout and model examples are included in the attached CD-ROM.

Aimed at intermediate and advanced level modellers in Excel who wish to extend and consolidate their knowledge, this book is focused, practical, and application-driven, facilitating knowledge to build or audit a much wider range of financial models.

""An excellent book which presents advanced financial modelling tools and simulations, and applies them to modern aspects of financial management. As a renowned expert in modelling, Michael Rees develops efficient techniques for simulation and sensitivity analysis within an Excel and Excel add-on framework using many useful andtransparent applications in the context of company valuation, derivative business and risk management, enabling the reader to develop good models themselves. A unique book which is highly instructive and motivating.""

--Professor Dr Dieter Gramlich, University of Cooperative Education, Heidenheim, Germany

""Mike Rees's book fills an important gap in the literature on how to model financial data. It not only provides a whole host of useful suggestions on how to design, structure, build and analyse models; including tips on how use some of the more advanced functionality in Excel, but also in a clear and concise way explains how to include uncertainty in to these models. During the last few years many business's environment have changed, creating the need to explicitly include uncertainty into their decision making rather than hide behind simple (and often flawed) assumptions of what the future may hold. Mike clearly understands the importance of this area and includes several sections which provide an excellent introduction to anyone starting to apply these types of techniques in their financial models for the first time. It is the combination of best practice modelling techniques, plenty of examples and the basics of some of the more advanced approaches that make this book a useful addition to anyone building financial models.""

--Andrea Dickens, Decision Analysis Group Leader, Finance Excellence Unilever

In 1936 the Mongolian socialist government decreed the establishment of a film industry with the principal aim of disseminating propaganda to the largely nomadic population. The government sent promising young rural Mongolian musicians to Soviet conservatoires to be trained formally as composers. On their return they utilised their traditional Mongolian musical backgrounds and the musical skills learned during their studies to compose scores to the 167 propaganda films produced by the state film studio between 1938 and 1990. Lucy M. Rees provides an overview of the rich mosaic of music genres that appeared in these film soundtracks, including symphonic music influenced by Western art music, modified forms of Mongolian traditional music, and a new genre known as 'professional music' that combined both symphonic and Mongolian traditional characteristics. Case studies of key composers and film scores are presented, demonstrating the influence of cultural policy on film music and showing how film scores complemented the ideological message of the films. There are discussions of films that celebrate the 1921 Revolution that led to Mongolia becoming a socialist nation, those that foreshadowed the 1990 Democratic Revolution that drew the socialist era to a close, and the diverse range of films and scores produced after 1990 in the aftermath of the socialist regime.

The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications. The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include: * Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges. * Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide. * In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques. * The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author s many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.

In 1936 the Mongolian socialist government decreed the establishment of a film industry with the principal aim of disseminating propaganda to the largely nomadic population. The government sent promising young rural Mongolian musicians to Soviet conservatoires to be trained formally as composers. On their return they utilised their traditional Mongolian musical backgrounds and the musical skills learned during their studies to compose scores to the 167 propaganda films produced by the state film studio between 1938 and 1990. Lucy M. Rees provides an overview of the rich mosaic of music genres that appeared in these film soundtracks, including symphonic music influenced by Western art music, modified forms of Mongolian traditional music, and a new genre known as 'professional music' that combined both symphonic and Mongolian traditional characteristics. Case studies of key composers and film scores are presented, demonstrating the influence of cultural policy on film music and showing how film scores complemented the ideological message of the films. There are discussions of films that celebrate the 1921 Revolution that led to Mongolia becoming a socialist nation, those that foreshadowed the 1990 Democratic Revolution that drew the socialist era to a close, and the diverse range of films and scores produced after 1990 in the aftermath of the socialist regime.

Hogan compresses the fifteen-billion-year history of the Universe into a pleasurable evening. In a very direct way, he answers the questions everyone asks. -MARGARET GELLER, HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CENTER FOR ASTROPHYSICS
This delightful little primer brings you right up to the cutting edge of modern cosmology. -GEORGE SMOOT, PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR, COBE AND AUTHOR OF WRINKLES IN TIME
An excellent bridge by which the layperson can enter the domain of the Cosmos with understanding. -ROBERT WILLIAMS, DIRECTOR, SPACE TELESCOPE SCIENCE INSTITUTE

There has never been a time when 'following the science' has been more important for humanity. At no other point in history have we had such advanced knowledge and technology at our fingertips, nor had such astonishing capacity to determine the future of our planet. But the decisions we must make on how science is applied belong outside the lab and should be the outcome of wide public debate. For that to happen, science needs to become part of our common culture. Science is not just for scientists: if it were, it could never save us from the multiple crises we face. For science can save us, if its innovations mesh carefully into society and its applications are channelled for the common good. As Martin Rees argues in this expert and personal analysis of the scientific endeavour on which we all depend, we need to think globally, we need to think rationally and we need to think long-term, empowered by twenty-first-century technology but guided by values that science alone cannot provide.

The comprehensive, broadly-applicable, real-world guide to financial modelling Financial Modelling in Practice, Second Edition covers the full spectrum of financial modelling tools and techniques to provide practical skills grounded in real-world scenarios. Based on rigorously-tested training materials, this book demonstrates the construction and operation of a range of financial models with clear instruction on model design, Excel functionality, VBA coding, risk analysis, real options modelling and more. This second edition has been significantly updated to align with the latest version of Excel and the current financial modelling climate, including new guidance on sensitivity analysis as a model design tool and risk analysis as an extension of sensitivity analysis. The companion website provides access to worked examples and pre-formatted spreadsheets to facilitate learning and implementation, and the strong emphasis on practical solutions allows direct real-world application. The number of people tasked with financial modelling duties has increased significantly in recent years, yet comprehensive, broadly-applicable references are rare. This book brings together concept and practice to provide a high value resource for anyone wanting to gain a practical understanding of this complex and nuanced topic. * Utilize Excel at a more advanced level, including VBA modelling * Learn unique tips and hints for data manipulation and analysis * Understand financial statement modelling for valuation * Master simulation, risk modelling and optimization Financial modelling is invaluable to a broad range of financial decisions, including corporate finance valuation, portfolio composition, cash flow analysis, budgeting, forecasting and more. This book provides clear instruction applicable across sectors, settings and countries, presented in a well-structured and highly-developed format accessible to people with very different backgrounds. For practical instruction, robust technique and clear presentation, Financial Modelling in Practice is the premier guide to real-world financial modelling from the ground up.