Tobacco use has declined because of measures such as high taxes on tobacco products and bans on advertising, but worldwide there are still more than one billion people who regularly use tobacco, including many who purchase products illicitly. By contrast to many other commodities, taxes comprise a substantial portion of the retail price of cigarettes in the United States and most other nations. Large tax differentials between jurisdictions increase incentives for participation in existing illicit tobacco markets. In the United States, the illicit tobacco market consists mostly of bootlegging from low-tax states to high-tax states and is less affected by large-scale smuggling or illegal production as in other countries. In the future, nonprice regulation of cigarettes - such as product design, formulation, and packaging - could in principle, contribute to the development of new types of illicit tobacco markets. Understanding the U.S. Illicit Tobacco Market reviews the nature of illicit tobacco markets, evidence for policy effects, and variations among different countries with a focus on implications for the United States. This report estimates the portion of the total U.S. tobacco market represented by illicit sales has grown in recent years and is now between 8.5 percent and 21 percent. This represents between 1.24 to 2.91 billion packs of cigarettes annually and between $2.95 billion and $6.92 billion in lost gross state and local tax revenues. Understanding the U.S. Illicit Tobacco Market describes the complex system associated with illicit tobacco use by exploring some of the key features of that market - the cigarette supply chain, illicit procurement schemes, the major actors in the illicit trade, and the characteristics of users of illicit tobacco. This report draws on domestic and international experiences with the illicit tobacco trade to identify a range of possible policy and enforcement interventions by the U.S. federal government and/or states and localities. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Characteristics of the Illicit Tobacco Market 3 Participants in the Illicit Tobacco Market 4 Measuring the Size of the Illicit Tobacco Market 5 Interventions in the Illicit Tobacco Market: Policy and Regulatory Options 6 Interventions in the Illicit Tobacco Market: Law Enforcement 7 Interventions in the Illicit Tobacco Market: International Case Studies 8 Possible Changes in Tobacco Products: Considering Consumer and Supply Responses References Appendix: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff

Immigration enforcement is carried out by a complex legal and administrative system, operating under frequently changing legislative mandates and policy guidance, with authority and funding spread across several agencies in two executive departments and the courts. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for conducting immigration enforcement both at the border and in the United States; the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is responsible for conducting immigration removal procedures and criminal trials and for prosecuting people charged with immigration-related crimes. DOJ confronts at least five technical challenges to modeling its resource needs for immigration enforcement that are specific to the immigration enforcement system. Despite the inherent limitations, budgeting for immigration enforcement can be improved by changing the method for budgeting. Budgeting for Immigration Enforcement addresses how to improve budgeting for the federal immigration enforcement system, specifically focusing on the parts of that system that are operated and funded by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). The report recommends that DOJ establish policy-level procedures to plan and coordinate policy planning and implementation to improve performance of the immigration enforcement system. The report also recommends that DOJ and DHS accelerate their design of an integrated capacity to track cases and project immigration enforcement activity. Policy makers and others who are interested in how the nation's immigration enforcement system is organized and operates also will find it useful. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Exploring the Budgeting Problem 3 Recent Patterns of Unauthorized Immigration 4 The Immigration Enforcement System 5 Budgeting for DOJ Immigration Enforcement 6 Budgeting Challenges 7 Conclusions and Recommendations Appendix A: Immigration Policy Timeline Appendix B: Efforts to Model Workload and Resource Requirements Appendix C: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff References

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for securing and managing the nation's borders. Over the past decade, DHS has dramatically stepped up its enforcement efforts at the U.S.-Mexico border, increasing the number of U.S. Border patrol (USBP) agents, expanding the deployment of technological assets, and implementing a variety of "consequence programs" intended to deter illegal immigration. During this same period, there has also been a sharp decline in the number of unauthorized migrants apprehended at the border. Trends in total apprehensions do not, however, by themselves speak to the effectiveness of DHS's investments in immigration enforcement. In particular, to evaluate whether heightened enforcement efforts have contributed to reducing the flow of undocumented migrants, it is critical to estimate the number of border-crossing attempts during the same period for which apprehensions data are available. With these issues in mind, DHS charged the National Research Council (NRC) with providing guidance on the use of surveys and other methodologies to estimate the number of unauthorized crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, preferably by geographic region and on a quarterly basis. Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border focuses on Mexican migrants since Mexican nationals account for the vast majority (around 90 percent) of attempted unauthorized border crossings across the U.S.-Mexico border. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 The Process of Unauthorized Crossing at the U.S.Mexico Border 3 Migration-Relevant Surveys in the United States and Mexico: Background 4 Migration-Relevant Surveys in the United States and Mexico: Usefulness and Limitations 5 Administrative Data on Undocumented Migration Across U.S. Borders 6 Model-Based Approaches to Estimating Migration Flows References Appendix A: Survey Questions About Migration and Border Crossing Appendix B: Review of Capture-Recapture Ideas for Measuring the Flow of Unauthorized Crossings at the U.S.Mexico Border Appendix C: Biographical Sketches of Panel Members Committee on National Statistics