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Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence,
and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding.
Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries
with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can
get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict
surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. Surprise
is one aspect of a broader discussion in the national security
literature on innovative operational concepts, which may serve as
force multipliers to enable the United States to get more out of
existing capabilities. A follow up to CSIS's highly successful 2018
study Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts, this report
highlights several components of a successful surprise, including
exploiting adversary vulnerabilities, using intelligence and
technology, employing secrecy and deception, and doing the
unexpected. The report also contains over a dozen vignettes
illustrating potential future surprises.
This study identifies five alternative strategies and, using CSIS's
Force Cost Calculator, builds a cost-capped force structure,
modernization program, and readiness profile for each strategy. It
then stress-tests each strategy against four sets of simultaneous
conflict scenarios, which the authors devised. The study explores
potential ways to mitigate the fiscal pressure forcing these
strategic tradeoffs. It concludes by making recommendations for the
FY 2017 defense budget and the next Quadrennial Defense Review
(QDR).
CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian annually produces a series of
white papers on U.S. military forces, including their composition,
new initiatives, long-term trends, and challenges. This report is a
compilation of these papers and takes a deep look at each of the
military services, the new Space Force, special operations forces,
DOD civilians, and contractors in the FY 2021 budget. This report
further includes a foreword regarding how the Biden administration
might approach decisions facing the military forces, drawing on
insights from the individual chapters.
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