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This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth
volume. The first two papers examine China's macroeconomic
development. "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" by Chun
Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key
characteristics of growth and business cycles in China.
"Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom" by Hanming Fang, Quanlin
Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index,
showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per
year over the past decade. The third paper, "External and Public
Debt Crises" by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright,
asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and
subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on
economic outcomes. The fourth, "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An
Empirical Exploration" by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William
Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy
propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across
upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers
investigate the usefulness of surveys of household's beliefs for
understanding economic phenomena. "Expectations and Investment," by
Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that
a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future
earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future
investment of that firm. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward
Trends in Unemployment and Participation" by Regis Barnichon and
Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age
Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work
and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the
1990s.
The thirty-first edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features
theoretical and empirical research on central issues in
contemporary macroeconomics. The first two papers are rigorous and
data-driven analyses of the European financial crisis. The third
paper introduces a new set of facts about economic growth and
financial ratios as well as a new macrofinancial database for the
study of historical financial booms and busts. The fourth paper
studies the historical effects of Federal Reserve efforts to
provide guidance about the future path of the funds rate. The fifth
paper explores the distinctions between models of price setting and
associated nominal frictions using data on price setting behavior.
The sixth paper considers the possibility that the economy displays
nonlinear dynamics that lead to cycles rather than long-term
convergence to a steady state. The volume also includes a short
paper on the decline in the rate of global economic growth.
This volume contains six studies on current topics in
macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational
expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning
model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations
equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S.
financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than
before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes "factorless
income," output that is not measured as capital or labor income.
Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the
perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and
explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper
documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing
sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans
since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic
effects of border adjustment taxes.
The thirty-first edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features
theoretical and empirical research on central issues in
contemporary macroeconomics. The first two papers are rigorous and
data-driven analyses of the European financial crisis. The third
paper introduces a new set of facts about economic growth and
financial ratios as well as a new macrofinancial database for the
study of historical financial booms and busts. The fourth paper
studies the historical effects of Federal Reserve efforts to
provide guidance about the future path of the funds rate. The fifth
paper explores the distinctions between models of price setting and
associated nominal frictions using data on price setting behavior.
The sixth paper considers the possibility that the economy displays
nonlinear dynamics that lead to cycles rather than long-term
convergence to a steady state. The volume also includes a short
paper on the decline in the rate of global economic growth.
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 presents research-central
issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Robert Hall and Marianna
Kudlyak examine unemployment dynamics during economic recoveries.
They present new empirical findings and explore models in which the
labor market gradually draws down the stock of unemployed workers
in the aftermath of a downturn. Titan Alon, Sena Coskun, Matthias
Doepke, David Koll, and Michèle Tertilt analyze the relative
decline in employment of women during the COVID-19 pandemic and the
associated global recession. They show that increased childcare
needs, which fell more heavily on women, and differences in
occupations both contributed. In the case of the US, however, each
of these factors account for less than 20% of the gender gap in
hours worked during the pandemic. Richard Rogerson and Johanna
Wallenius study the employment rates of older workers in OECD
countries over the last forty years. An expansion of institutions
incentivizing retirement, concurrent with negative aggregate shocks
between 1970 and 1995, led to falling employment rates. This trend
started to reverse in the mid-1990s when many of these
institutions, such as public pension programs, were cut back.
Michael Barnett, William Brock, and Lars Peter Hansen explore the
consequences of risk, ambiguity, and model misspecification in
climate policy design. They consider carbon emissions pricing and
the effects of different sources of uncertainty—such as future
information about environmental damage, uncertainties in carbon and
temperature dynamics and damage functions, and the role of future
green technologies—on policy design. Michael Kremer, Jack Willis,
and Yang You present new evidence suggesting a steady trend toward
income convergence across countries since the late 1980s. They find
convergence in various determinants of economic growth across
countries and a flattening of the relationship between growth and
these determinants. The paper challenges theories of growth arising
after earlier rejections of the neoclassical growth model.
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020 presents research by leading
scholars on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics.
George-Marios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, and Karthik Sastry ask how to
model expectations without rational expectations. They find that in
response to business cycle shocks, expectations underreact
initially but eventually overshoot, which in their view favors
models with dispersed, noisy information and overextrapolation of
expectations. Next, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel Sarte,
and Nicholas Trachter contrast the patterns of rising aggregate
firm market concentration with falling market concentration over
time at the local level. Some associate rising concentration with
less competition and more market power, but because most product
markets are local, studying changes in local competition, as
opposed to trends in aggregate competition, provides important
insights. Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón
Steinsson develop a novel econometric procedure to recover
structural parameters using cross-region variation, for example, to
estimate direct effects of housing wealth changes on individual
household consumption. To avoid confounding direct and indirect
effects, the authors isolate the direct effect of house price
changes on consumption by using other estimates of demand
multipliers from the local government spending literature to
deflate estimates of the total effect of local consumption on local
house prices. Peter Klenow and Huiyu Li examine the sources of
reduced productivity growth by quantifying the contribution of
innovation to economic growth. They find that young firms generate
roughly half the productivity growth, most of the changes in
productivity during the mid-1990s are accounted for by older firms,
and most growth results from quality improvements on incumbents’
own products. In the fifth chapter, Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, and
Jae Song use detailed micro panel data from the Social Security
Administration to assess the progress women have made into the top
1% and top 0.1% of the income distribution over time. Finally,
Joachim Hubmer, Per Krusell, and Anthony Smith Jr. explore the
reasons for growing wealth inequality across the developed world.
They argue that the significant drop in tax progressivity starting
in the late 1970s was the most important source of growing wealth
inequality in the United States. The sharp observed increases in
earnings inequality and the falling labor share cannot account for
the bulk of the increase in wealth inequality. Â
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