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Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate
decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting.
Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better
understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds.
Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders'
aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events
and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This
book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results
from several empirical studies reported in this work show the
importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive
valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for
designing future prediction markets.
Martin Spann zeigt theoretisch und empirisch, dass virtuelle Borsen
ein Erfolg versprechendes Instrument zur Marktforschung sein
konnen, und uberpruft die Anwendbarkeit virtueller Borsen auf
konkrete Probleme der Unternehmenspraxis.
Ausgezeichnet mit dem Erich-Gutenberg-Preis 2003, dem
Dissertationspreis der Industrie- und Handelskammer Frankfurt am
Main und dem 3. Preis des Bundesverbands Deutscher Markt- und
Sozialforscher e.V."
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