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This title was first published in 1978. This volume brings together
translations of a series of fundamental articles that are of
special value for those who seek to understand ChinaTs system of
economic planning. These materials, which were intended to provide
a basic introduction to the principles and techniques of economic
planning being introduced during the First Five-Year Plan,
originally appeared in two series in the journal Chi-hua ching-chi
(Economic Planning), the official organ of the State Planning
Commission and the State Economic Commission.
China has emerged as an economic powerhouse (projected to have the
largest economy in the world in a little over a decade) and is
taking an ever-increasing role on the world stage. China's Rise:
Challenges and Opportunities will help the United States and the
rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics
underpinning China's rise-an understanding that becomes more and
more important with each passing day. Additionally, the authors
suggest actions both China and the United States can take that will
not only maximize the opportunities for China's constructive
integration into the international community but also help form a
domestic consensus that will provide a stable foundation for such
policies. Filled with facts for policymakers, this much anticipated
book's narrative-driven, accessible style will appeal to the
general reader. This book is unique in that it analyzes the
authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy,
and national security. The expert judgments in this book paint a
picture of a China confronting domestic challenges that are in many
ways side effects of its economic successes, while simultaneously
trying to take advantage of the foreign policy benefits of those
same successes.China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities from The
China Balance Sheet Project, a joint, multiyear project of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Peterson
Institute, discusses China's military modernization, China's
increasing soft power influence in Asia and around the world,
China's policy toward Taiwan, domestic political development,
Beijing's political relations with China's provincial and municipal
authorities, corruption and social unrest, rebalancing China's
economic growth, the exchange rate controversy, energy and the
environment, industrial policy, trade disputes, and investment
issues. This book is part of the CSIS-IIE China Balance Sheet
project. For more information about this project, please visit
www.chinabalancesheet.org.
China's transition to a market economy has propelled its remarkable
economic growth since the late 1970s. In this book, Nicholas R.
Lardy, one of the world's foremost experts on the Chinese economy,
traces the increasing role of market forces and refutes the widely
advanced argument that Chinese economic progress rests on the
government's control of the economy's "commanding heights." In
another challenge to conventional wisdom, Lardy finds little
evidence that the decade of the leadership of former President Hu
Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao (2003-13) dramatically increased the
role and importance of state-owned firms, as many people argue.
This book offers powerfully persuasive evidence that the major
sources of China's growth in the future will be similarly market
rather than state-driven, with private firms providing the major
source of economic growth, the sole source of job creation, and the
major contributor to China's still growing role as a global trader.
Lardy does, however, call on China to deregulate and increase
competition in those portions of the economy where state firms
remain protected, especially in energy and finance.
The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has
raised many questions concerning the future of global economic
growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was
characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large
trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting
countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United
States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the
previous growth model of low consumption, high saving countries
such as China is obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy
response beginning in the early fall of 2008 made China the first
globally significant economy to come off the bottom and begin to
grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's recovery was based
on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning investment
in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding net
exports once global recovery gained traction. Critics, however,
argued that as government-financed investment inevitably tapered
off, the likelihood was that global recovery would not be
sufficiently strong for China's exports to resume their former role
as a major contributor to China's economic expansion. The prospect,
in the eyes of these critics, is that China's growth will
inevitably falter.This study examines China's response to the
global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic
growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the
implications for the United States and the global economy of
successful Chinese rebalancing. On the first it analyzes the
strengths and weaknesses of China's stimulus program. On the second
it analyzes the nature of origins of the imbalances in China's
economy and the array of policy options that the government has to
transition to more consumption-driven growth. On the third
successful rebalancing would mean that more rapid growth of
consumption would offset the drag on growth from a shrinkage of
China's external surplus. Successful rebalancing would mean China
would no longer be a source of financing for any ongoing US
external deficit. From a global perspective China would no longer
be a source of the global economic imbalances that contributed to
the recent global financial crisis and great recession.
Taiwan has a special status for the United States, as both a
leading high-technology economic partner and a place of political
and security concern. The authors look at both the quantitative and
qualitative evidence on the potential effects of a US-Taiwan free
trade agreement (FTA), both for maximizing US economic benefits and
for securing a prosperous and secure future for Taiwan. Their
analysis indicates that the direct economic benefits of a
prospective FTA would be modest and that the FTA could be most
valuable to the United States if it leads Taiwan toward greater
regional integration.
China is playing a growing role in the world economy. It is one of
the world's fastest growing countries and is the tenth largest
exporter. China is also a significant recipient of foreign aid and
a major borrower on international capital markets. Even more
significantly, it is attracting vast amounts of foreign direct
investment.China in the World Economy examines the implications of
China's emergence as a major player in the world economy. Its
integration into the international economic order poses major
difficulties for the rest of the world. These problems including
bringing China's mixed market/centrally planned economy into the
GATT, adapting to competition from labor-intensive Chinese exports,
encouraging further market-oriented reform, and accommodating its
demand for international capital. But China's participation in the
global economy also offers important opportunities for trade,
investment and international cooperation to promote world peace and
stability.Nicholas Lardy anticipates that China will continue on a
rapid growth path, thus magnifying the policy challenges and
opportunities for its trading partners, including the U. S. He
recommends a series of steps to facilitate China's full
participation in the world economy.
China has emerged as an economic powerhouse (projected to have the
largest economy in the world in a little over a decade) and is
taking an ever-increasing role on the world stage. China's Rise:
Challenges and Opportunities will help the United States and the
rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics
underpinning China's rise-an understanding that becomes more and
more important with each passing day. Additionally, the authors
suggest actions both China and the United States can take that will
not only maximize the opportunities for China's constructive
integration into the international community but also help form a
domestic consensus that will provide a stable foundation for such
policies. Filled with facts for policymakers, this much anticipated
book's narrative-driven, accessible style will appeal to the
general reader. This book is unique in that it analyzes the
authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy,
and national security. The expert judgments in this book paint a
picture of a China confronting domestic challenges that are in many
ways side effects of its economic successes, while simultaneously
trying to take advantage of the foreign policy benefits of those
same successes.China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities from The
China Balance Sheet Project, a joint, multiyear project of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Peterson
Institute, discusses China's military modernization, China's
increasing soft power influence in Asia and around the world,
China's policy toward Taiwan, domestic political development,
Beijing's political relations with China's provincial and municipal
authorities, corruption and social unrest, rebalancing China's
economic growth, the exchange rate controversy, energy and the
environment, industrial policy, trade disputes, and investment
issues. This book is part of the CSIS-IIE China Balance Sheet
project. For more information about this project, please visit
www.chinabalancesheet.org.
More than two and a half years have passed since China announced a
number of changes to its foreign exchange regime in July 2005.
During this period, the debate on the pros and cons of China's
exchange rate policy, which had begun in earnest several years
earlier, intensified. This important new book, based on an
Institute conference in October 2007, takes stock of exchange rate
policy in China and identifies the major policy options going
forward.Specific proposals presented in the volume address how best
to eliminate any misalignment of the renminbi; how best to reduce
pressures emanating from the sterilization of large reserve
accumulation; how best to make capital flows the ally-not the
enemy-of exchange rate policy; and what institutional arrangements
and policy guidelines to put in place to reap the greatest benefits
from management of China's large foreign exchange reserves. Leading
experts-including three from China-have contributed to the volume.
The keynote address by Wu Xiaoling, deputy governor to the People's
Bank of China at the time of the conference, is also presented in
the book.
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