The creation of the ECU in 1979 as part of the newly established European Monetary system was greeted with widespread scepticism, few predicted the success it would have in private financial markets. The macroeconomic and microeconomic implications of the ECU and its significance for monetary integration in Europe are considered by a variety of contributors from academics to those in banking circles. Current research is examined and the theoretical and empirical aspects of the emergence of the ECU as a vehicle for European policy-making are considered to provide insights as to its future development.

The Political Economy of Monetary Union presents an important collection of the most influential articles covering different areas in this expanding field. The volume brings together both the classical articles which have laid the foundations for the theory of optimum currency and the resulting empirical literature. Further papers focus on the issues of fiscal policy, the design and operation of the central bank in a monetary union and the problems of transition to monetary union. This authoritative volume is essential reading for all scholars, students and practitioners interested in the issues relating to economic and monetary unification.

Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies brings together research and work done by world-class economist Paul De Grauwe over the past two decades. Drawing inspiration from behavioural finance literature, De Grauwe covers topics such as exchange rate economics, monetary integration (with particular attention on the Eurozone), and international macroeconomics.His work is categorised across three parts. The first part develops new theoretical and empirical approaches to exchange rate modelling. The second part features a collection of papers on the theory and empirical analysis of monetary unions. The final part contains criticism of mainstream macroeconomic models as well as proposed alternative modelling approaches.

The creation of the ECU in 1979 as part of the newly established European Monetary system was greeted with widespread scepticism, few predicted the success it would have in private financial markets. The macroeconomic and microeconomic implications of the ECU and its significance for monetary integration in Europe are considered by a variety of contributors from academics to those in banking circles. Current research is examined and the theoretical and empirical aspects of the emergence of the ECU as a vehicle for European policy-making are considered to provide insights as to its future development.

Reflecting the most update-to-date coverage of institutional changes within the European Monetary Union, the fourteenth edition of De Grauwe's established textbook continues to encourage students to think critically about the sustainability of the Eurozone. The author uses an authoritative, concise and exciting approach to analyse theories and policies relating to monetary union, allowing students to develop a balanced understanding of different arguments and perspectives. Part One examines the implications of adopting a common currency while Part Two considers the problems associated with running a monetary union. Both parts analyse Europe's experience and the issues faced by the European Central Bank. Case studies throughout the text provide rich, real life and qualitative examples to help students connect with the concepts and policies presented. Additionally, each chapter ends with a conclusion recapping the core issues, and a set of questions, which encourages students to test their knowledge and stretch their understanding further. The fourteenth edition is available for students and institutions to purchase in a variety of formats, and is supported by online resources. * The ebook offers a mobile experience and convenient access along with functionality tools, navigation features and links that offer extra learning support: www.oxfordtextbooks.co.uk/ebooks * This book is accompanied by the following online resources: For students: - Links to data sources - Essay questions - Web links - Paul De Grauwe on Twitter For Lecturers: - PowerPoint slides - Instructor's manual

In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation.

De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets

In contrast to the USA, Europe has struggled to return to the growth path it was on prior to the financial crisis of 2007-11. Not only has the recovery been slow, it has also been variable with Europe's core countries recovering more quickly than those on the periphery. It is widely believed that the best way to address this slow recovery is through structural reform programmes whereby changes in government policy, regulatory frameworks, investment incentives and labour markets are used to encourage more efficient markets and higher economic growth. This book is the first to provide a critical assessment of these reforms, with a new theoretical framework, new data and new empirical methodologies. It includes several case studies of countries such as Greece, Portugal and France that introduced significant reforms, revealing that such programmes have very divergent, and not always positive, effects on economic growth, employment and income inequality.

Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.

Reforms in labour and product markets play a central role in government policies. The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe takes stock of current frontier work. It brings together leading contributions from academia, the central banks in Europe, and the OECD to argue that structural reforms can make a fundamental contribution to improve economic performance across Europe. The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe brings together theoretical and empirical studies that address the potential role of structural reforms in restoring macroeconomic stability, resuming economic growth, addressing income inequality, and grappling secular stagnation. It throws new light on the determinants and effects of structural reforms and on how these shape the European integration experience.

The old discussion of 'Market or State' is obsolete. There will always have to be a mix of market and state. The only relevant question is what that mix should look like. How far do we have to let the market go its own way in order to create as much welfare as possible for everyone? What is the responsibility of the government in creating welfare? These are difficult questions. But they are also interesting questions and Paul De Grauwe analyses them in this book. The desired mix of market and state is anything but easy to bring about. It is a difficult and sometimes destructive process that is constantly in motion. There are periods in history in which the market gains in importance. During other periods the opposite occurs and government is more dominant. The turning points in this pendulum swing typically seem to coincide with disruptive events that test the limits of market and state. Why we experience this dynamic is an important theme in the book. Will the market, which today is afforded a greater and greater role due to globalization, run up against its limits? Or do the financial crisis and growing income inequality show that we have already reached those limits? Do we have to brace ourselves for a rejection of the capitalist system? Are we returning to an economy in which the government is running the show?

The period since the Second World war has been an eventful and often disturbing one in the international monetary field. Economic theories have been propounded and modified both to explain these events and to influence future choices made by economic actors.
This history of international monetary relations shows both how theoretical development affected private developments, and how the theories themselves have been judged - and often discarded - on the basis of their perceived accordance with actuality. Exchange rate movements in particular are examined in the light of the absence of any generally accepted fundamental model, and the author deploys here his own theory based on the idea of bounded rationality. Finally, he looks ahead to future possibilities for the international monetary system.
New in the Second Edition
Fully revised and updated
Includes an account of the EMS up till the end of 1995
Fuller theoretical coverage of fixed exchange rate systems, including the modelling of speculative attacks
Covers chaos theory and near-rational behaviour
Includes new sections on: speculators and speculative bubbles; target zones and other proposals for international monetary reform; the importance of free capital mobility and proposals to control capital movements.

This book provides an alternative view of the workings of foreign exchange markets.

The authors' modeling approach is based on the idea that agents use simple forecasting rules and switch to those rules that have been shown to be the most profitable in the past. This selection mechanism is based on trial and error and is probably the best possible strategy in an uncertain world, the authors contend. It creates a rich dynamic in the foreign exchange markets and can generate bubbles and crashes.

Sensitivity to initial conditions is a pervasive force in De Grauwe and Grimaldi's model. It explains why large exchange-rate changes and volatility clustering occur. It also has important implications for understanding how the news affects the exchange rate. De Grauwe and Grimaldi conclude that news in fundamentals has an unpredictable effect on the exchange rate. Sometimes, they maintain, it alters the exchange rate considerably; at other times it has no effectwhatsoever.

The authors also use their model to analyze the effects of official interventions in the foreign exchange market. They show that simple intervention rules of the "leaning-against-the-wind" variety can be effective in eliminating bubbles and crashes in the exchange rate. They further demonstrate how, quite paradoxically, by intervening in the foreign exchange market the central bank makes the market look more efficient.

Clear and comprehensive, "The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework" is a must-have for analysts in foreign exchange markets as well as students of international finance and economics.

The old discussion of 'Market or State' is obsolete. There will always have to be a mix of market and state. The only relevant question is what that mix should look like. How far do we have to let the market go its own way in order to create as much welfare as possible for everyone? What is the responsibility of the government in creating welfare? These are difficult questions. But they are also interesting questions and Paul De Grauwe analyses them in this book. The desired mix of market and state is anything but easy to bring about. It is a difficult and sometimes destructive process that is constantly in motion. There are periods in history in which the market gains in importance. During other periods the opposite occurs and government is more dominant. The turning points in this pendulum swing typically seem to coincide with disruptive events that test the limits of market and state. Why we experience this dynamic is an important theme in the book. Will the market, which today is afforded a greater and greater role due to globalization, run up against its limits? Or do the financial crisis and growing income inequality show that we have already reached those limits? Do we have to brace ourselves for a rejection of the capitalist system? Are we returning to an economy in which the government is running the show?