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For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling.Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control
Pertussis, or whooping cough, is a respiratory disease caused primarily by infection with the bacterium Bordetella pertussis. It remains among the leading causes of death amongst vaccine-preventable diseases worldwide and recent years have seen its alarming re-emergence in many regions (including the U.S. and much of Europe), despite sustained high levels of vaccine coverage. The causes of the resurgence remain contentious, in part due to inherent complexities of the pathogen's biology, in part due to pronounced variation in the treatment and prevention strategies between different countries and regions, and in part due to long-standing disagreement amongst scientific researchers studying pertussis. This edited volume brings together expert knowledge from disparate fields with the overall aim of synthesizing the current understanding of this critically important, global pathogen.
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