This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating cointegration vectors and the error-correction formulations. We then test the stability of these equations using Chow and Kalman-Filter tests. The evidence suggests three findings. First, conventional trade equations and elasticities are stable enough, in most cases, to perform adequately in forecasting and policy simulations. Equations for German trade, as well as equations for French and Italian exports, are an exception. Second, income elasticities of U.S. trade have not been shifting in a direction that will tend to ease the trend toward deterioration in the U.S. trade position. The income-elasticity gap for Japan found in earlier studies was not confirmed in this analysis. Finally, the price channel is weak, if not wholly ineffective, in the case of continental European countries.

This volume brings together new scholarly research in important aspects of international economics. The unifying theme is that each chapter is devoted to a fresh analysis of a problem in international economic research in the second half of this century. Each chapter looks at a significant issue in international trade or finance, including determinants of comparative advantage, the effects of trade restrictions and the importance of trade liberalization, aspects of international trade institutions, and monetary policy in integrated markets. Three broad areas of international economic analysis are explored. The first part of the volume is devoted to new and sophisticated empirical analyses of important policy questions, such as technical change in trade models, how nontariff barriers are established, and how patent protection affects trade flows. The second part analyzes key areas involving international trade negotiations, including the usefulness of binding tariff commitments, regionalism versus bilateralism in trade liberalization, and strategic competition among international firms in setting negotiating agendas. The final part considers important questions in labor costs, asset pricing, and monetary union in international markets. Professional international economists will find much worth reading in the volume. It also is relevant to scholars of international relations and international organizations, as well as political scientists and government policy analysts.