This book presents the results of an international workshop on Modelling and Analysis of Arms Control Problems held in Spitzingsee near Munich in October 1985 under the joint sponsorship of NATO's Scientific Affairs Division and the Volkswagen Foundation. The idea for this workshop evolved in 1983, as a consequence of discussions in the annual Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the Federal Armed Forces University ~1unich on the topic of Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control 1) * There was wide agreement among the contribu tors to that seminar and its participants that those efforts to assess the potential contributions of systems and decision sciences, as well as systems analysis and"mathematical modelling, to arms control issues should be ex panded and a forum should be provided for this activity. It was further agreed that such a forum should include political scientists and policy analysts working in the area of arms control.

This book presents a collection of contributions to a workshop on "Long-teY'fr/ Development of NATO's Conventional Forrward Defense" to which the GERMAN STRATEGY FORUM (DSF*" had invited some 50 systems analysts and defense experts of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany and the SHAPE Technical Centre. Held in Bonn from 2 to 4 December 1984, this workshop was to provide a forum for the dis cussion, at a non-political expert level and in the light of available analysis results, of proposals for the improvement of NATO's conventional defense capabilities. In addition, it aimed at arriving at some recommenda tions as to which of these proposals deserve to be studied further and what methodological deficiencies must be alleviated and information gaps closed for an adequate assessment. The idea to organize this workshop has been discussed ever since 1980 with several defense systems analysts in the US and the UK who shared the opinion that, with a view to the immense global build-up of the Soviet threat on one hand and the stringency of defense resources in most NATO countries on the other, there is no reason that could permit us to dismiss any proposal promising improvement without careful study.