Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

Every new Presidential administration seeks to implement its policy objectives rapidly, but in the vast organization of the U.S. Government, such changes take time. The Quadrennial defense Review (QDR) of 2001 offers the new Bush administration an important opportunity, as well as a great responsibility, to reexamine America's defense priorities in a comprehensive, top-to-bottom, strategy-to-program approach and provide early guidance for change. This is a gargantuan task. Current legislation requires the final report of QDR 2001 to be provided to Congress in September 2001. Even with early Senate confirmation of top defense officials, completing such a thorough review in just eight months is a daunting charge. One of the lessons learned during QDR 1997 was the advance efforts to identify key issues for the review process can be critical to success. Fortunately for the incoming administration, an independent effort to develop intellectual capital for QDR 2001 was started in the autumn of 1999. This effort consisted of a small working group which was chartered by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and established in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. Leading the group was Michele A. Flournoy, a veteran of the QDR 1997 effort and the former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Threat Reduction. This volume is a product of the group's work as well as contributions from outside experts associated with the project. A major conference on the project was held at NDU in November 2000, at which a final report was issued. This book provides the intellectual underpinnings of that report. To some extent this book is very much like the results of screening at an archeological dig. The issues in the book are not new; they are already part of the defense policy debate of our great democracy. But the authors carefully unearthed insights and options in a systematic manner, placing the issues in context. No defense issue lives in isolation; all are part of the process of priority-setting that is required to craft a successful strategy in the context of a finite budget. To help the new administration set its priorities, the working group and outside contributors have outlined a series of integrated paths that lead from strategy alternatives to force-sizing criteria to force structure and other programmatic issues, and they identify the forks in each path and the signposts along the way. This valuable book provides a unique service to the Department of Defense and the Nation, whether the new administration uses the QDR or some other review process as its primary vehicle for setting defense priorities. It represents an effort to transcend both the tyranny of the urgent and the bureaucratic rivalries that tend to dominate the analyses conducted within the Pentagon. It does so in a practical, logical, and supportive manner. It does not provide solutions but instead offers options form which the Bush administration can craft a new defense policy. In a sense this book represents a consummate menu of choices: an outside view that only knowledgeable insiders can provide. There are options identified in this book that some might support enthusiastically, and others might oppose. But no one can fail to be impressed by the fairness of this effort and the professional skill with which it was completed. This book represents a service to the Department of Defense and the new administration with few parallels. It provides an excellent starting point for a review of defense strategy, policies and programs.

'The Nightmare of Sleep' is part one of the 'Evolution of Imagination' which attempts to define what imagination is, how it functions, and trace its unique biological development in us, the Universe's first Time Lords. Every time you touch your forehead you are less than seven millimetres away from a biological computer with more processing power than all the world's computers linked together. Its main function is to run a unique application called 'Imagination' which allows us, Homo sapiens, to live in two coexisting worlds, both the physical and the virtual, simultaneously. Imagination is the hidden force that controls every aspect of our life, for we are all inseparably bound to our very own 'multi-dimensional virtual-reality processor'. On the face of it Imagination is a simple combination of two processes - the first is the ability to select a memory 'before' an event and the second is to be able to 'manipulate' it together with other memories, into a logical sequence, to predict an outcome. Yet this simple ability allows each of us to become a Time Lord, constantly travelling between the past, the present and the future, in less than the blink of an eye. Imagination is our very own subliminal problem solver, constantly running in the background to provide answers to 'what if' scenarios enabling us to mentally assess consequences, without having to hurt ourselves in the physical world, something no other member of the animal kingdom can do. Imagination feeds on Imagination growing exponentially so who knows where it will lead, are we at the dawn of virtual telepathy? Will Imagination physically change us again as it has already? Will it prove to be the saviour of our species or open a Pandora's Box of seismic proportions? Time will eventually tell but for now perhaps the only hope we have of unravelling the future is if we start by tracing the incredible evolutionary steps which led us to acquire this wonderful gift.

Once termed the 'world's largest military museum', the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically and empirically grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history.

Once termed the 'world's largest military museum', the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically and empirically grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history.

China and East Asian Strategic Dynamics: the Shaping of a New Regional Order, edited by Mingjiang Li and Dongmin Lee, examines how China's remarkable economic growth and its proactive diplomatic efforts in recent years have not only shored up its importance in global issues, but also induced a transformation of the strategic dynamics in East Asia. The authors argue that major power relations in the region appear to be driven by some new momentum along with the changing international environment. The contributors of this edited volume are well-known scholars in their areas of specialty, and the book is divided into five parts. The first part discusses China's soft and hard power in East Asia. The second examines China and the strategic interactions between major powers; this particular section is devoted to discussion on the strategic responses of the major regional powers-the United States, Japan, Korea, India and ASEAN-to China's rise. Part three focuses on China's strategic approach to East Asian regionalism. Of particular note are China's active leadership role in institution-building efforts, strategic calculations, and preference for an informal approach. The fourth section analyzes the Cross-Taiwan Strait relations and their impact on both China and East Asia. The final section of China and East Asian Strategic Dynamics addresses the issue of China and maritime order in East Asia. China and East Asian Strategic Dynamics: the Shaping of a New Regional Order, edited by Mingjiang Li and Dongmin Lee, is a pioneering work. Given that the rise of China is a prominent issue in politics and economics worldwide, this edited collection is essential for a wide audience of policy-makers, academics, and students alike.

China and East Asian Strategic Dynamics: the Shaping of a New Regional Order, edited by Mingjiang Li and Dongmin Lee, examines how China's remarkable economic growth and its proactive diplomatic efforts in recent years have not only shored up its importance in global issues, but also induced a transformation of the strategic dynamics in East Asia. The authors argue that major power relations in the region appear to be driven by some new momentum along with the changing international environment. The contributors of this edited volume are well-known scholars in their areas of specialty, and the book is divided into five parts. The first part discusses China's soft and hard power in East Asia. The second examines China and the strategic interactions between major powers; this particular section is devoted to discussion on the strategic responses of the major regional powers the United States, Japan, Korea, India and ASEAN to China's rise. Part three focuses on China's strategic approach to East Asian regionalism. Of particular note are China's active leadership role in institution-building efforts, strategic calculations, and preference for an informal approach. The fourth section analyzes the Cross-Taiwan Strait relations and their impact on both China and East Asia. The final section of China and East Asian Strategic Dynamics addresses the issue of China and maritime order in East Asia. China and East Asian Strategic Dynamics: the Shaping of a New Regional Order, edited by Mingjiang Li and Dongmin Lee, is a pioneering work. Given that the rise of China is a prominent issue in politics and economics worldwide, this edited collection is essential for a wide audience of policy-makers, academics, and students alike.

Although the question of Taiwan's status may not be resolved soon, considering various outcomes and their possible effects on U.S.-China relations is useful. Ten trajectories for the resolution of Taiwan's status are given, with effects on U.S.-China relations ranging from close cooperation to cold war. As China's military capabilities grow, it will become more difficult but more important to prevent Beijing from trying to use force against Taiwan.

Could China use anti-access strategies to defeat the United States in a conflict-in the sense of accomplishing its military and political objectives while preventing the United States from doing likewise? Analysis of Chinese military-doctrinal writings reveals a number of anti-access concepts that could have this effect. There are a number of actions the United States can take, however, to reduce the effectiveness of such strategies.

This report analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of China's defense industrial complex. It examines four specific defense-industrial sectors - missiles, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology. It argues that China's defense industry is gradually emerging from two and a half decades of neglect, inefficiency and corruption. As part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this document analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of four specific defense-industrial sectors - missile, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology - to explain variations in performance among those sectors, with a focus on differences in institutional arrangements, incentives, and exposure to market forces, and to evaluate the prospects for China's defense industry and its ability to contribute to military modernization.

Projects future growth in Chinese defense expenditures, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future defense expenditure levels with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and on defense in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future expenditure levels with recent defense expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. The authors forecast that Chinese military spending is likely to rise from an estimated $69 billion in 2003 to $185 billion by 2025-approximately 61 percent of what the Department of Defense spent in 2003.