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Before the end of the present century the population of China -
currently around 1.4 billion - is forecast to drop to around half
that level as a major and unprecedented demographic crisis begins
to bite. Its working-age population has already stopped growing and
is now well into a process of contraction. Increasing longevity
means that by the 2050s there will be more than 400 million Chinese
citizens over the age of 65 - with little provision for their care
in a society where a single child is now the norm. The ratio of the
retired to those working is steadily rising, putting pressure on
families and the public finances. Years of preference for a male
child has seen the creation of a skewed sex ratio at birth that
already guarantees well over 50 million surplus adult males,
unmarried and unhappy, in the coming years. This is more than the
entire male population of Germany. The state has previously sought
to impose its will on reproduction, but Chinese families
experienced a sharply reduced birthrate even before the
introduction of the notorious one-child policy. And despite the
lifting of restrictions on the number of children allowed, births
remain stubbornly low. As Timothy Beardson shows in this timely and
fascinating new book, the Chinese people have largely ignored
official policy, as trends in urbanization, employment and
education alter traditional demographic patterns. China in fact
reflects a clearly identifiable shift in the whole world of moving
from high to low fertility. This book is the first to examine in
detail China's demographic history and the impending crisis that
will see more people in the United States by 2100 than in China. It
explains how China's ageing and shrinking population will affect
such widely disparate areas as the ethics of business, artificial
intelligence and the combat-worthiness of the military - not to
mention China's overall place in the modern world.
Can anything prevent China surpassing the United States and
becoming the world's superpower? While dozens of recent books and
articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to
global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held
assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of
challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of
the policy responses. Threats to China come on many fronts,
Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems
will thwart any ambition to become the world's "Number One power."
Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in
Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out China's
situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labor
force, relentless aging, extreme gender disparity, and even a
falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a
devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with
inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety
net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at
the borders. Beardson's nuanced, first-hand look at China
acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions
of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.
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