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Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and
amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact
of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his
theorem - independently discovered a few years later by
Pierre-Simon Laplace, the great French mathematician - was mainly
seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its
implications soon became clear, affecting fields as diverse as
medicine, law and artificial intelligence. Bayes' theorem helps
explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false
positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to
account for it in court it has put innocent people in jail. But its
influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of
rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and
forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who
outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue
that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of
almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of
rationality. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication
and intellectual history, EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE is a
captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life.
From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows
how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
Every day, most of us will read or watch something in the news that
is based on statistics in some way. Sometimes it'll be obvious - 'X
people develop cancer every year' - and sometimes less obvious -
'How smartphones destroyed a generation'. Statistics are an
immensely powerful tool for understanding the world, but in the
wrong hands they can be dangerous. Introducing you to the common
mistakes that journalists make and the tricks they sometimes
deploy, HOW TO READ NUMBERS is a vital guide that will help you
understand when and how to trust the numbers in the news - and,
just as importantly, when not to.
'The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made
of atoms which it can use for something else' This is a book about
AI and AI risk. But it's also more importantly about a community of
people who are trying to think rationally about intelligence, and
the places that these thoughts are taking them, and what insight
they can and can't give us about the future of the human race over
the next few years. It explains why these people are worried, why
they might be right, and why they might be wrong. It is a book
about the cutting edge of our thinking on intelligence and
rationality right now by the people who stay up all night worrying
about it. Along the way, we discover why we probably don't need to
worry about a future AI resurrecting a perfect copy of our minds
and torturing us for not inventing it sooner, but we perhaps should
be concerned about paperclips destroying life as we know it; how
Mickey Mouse can teach us an important lesson about how to
programme AI; and why Spock is not as logical as we think he is.
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Dark Islands (Paperback)
Tom Chivers; Designed by Traven T. Croves
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'A lyrical meditation on landscapes and cities, vivid reportage and
a memoir. And also a beautifully realised and moving read.'
Financial Times 'A beguiling mix of history, geology, folklore and
memoir that captivated me from the first page.' Lara Maiklem,
author of Mudlarking 'Tom Chivers brings a poet's sensibility to
this book about the hidden parts of the capital, mixing the past
with the present, the known with the unknown and his personal story
with social history and geology.' Bernardine Evaristo, author of
Girl, Woman, Other What secrets lie beneath a city? Tom Chivers
follows hidden pathways, explores lost islands and uncovers the
geological mysteries that burst up through the pavement and bubble
to the surface of our streets. From Roman ruins to a submerged
playhouse, from an abandoned Tube station to underground rivers,
Chivers leads us on a journey into the depths of the city he loves.
A lyrical interrogation of a capital city, a landscape and our
connection to place, London Clay celebrates urban edgelands:
in-between spaces where the natural world and the metropolis
collide. Through a combination of historical research, vivid
reportage and personal memoir, it will transform how you see
London, and cities everywhere. 'Tom Chivers, with the forensic eye
of an investigator, the soul of a poet, is an engaging presence; a
guide we would do well to follow.' Iain Sinclair, author of The
Last London
This anthology celebrates the 10th anniversary of one of the UK's
most innovative literary publishers. Since 2004 a small independent
publisher in East London has been producing some of the most
exciting poetry and experimental fiction anywhere, publishing new
works by the likes of Ross Sutherland, Emily Critchley, Melissa
Lee-Houghton, Luke Kennard and Roddy Lumsden. This new anthology
celebrates the first decade of Penned in the Margins, bringing
together over seventy-five of the very best poems and texts
carefully selected by editor Tom Chivers.
A Poetry Book Society Special Commendation The Independent 50 Best
Summer Reads Welcome to a strange new world in which a poem can be
written using only one vowel, processed through computer code,
collaged from film trailers, compiled from Facebook status updates,
hidden inside a Sudoku puzzle, and even painted on sheep to
demonstrate Quantum Theory. Discover a multitude of new and unusual
poetic forms - from tweet to time-splice, and from skinny
villanelle to breakbeat sonnet - in this inspiring and inventive
anthology. Adventures in Form features over ninety poems by
forty-six contributors including Patience Agbabi, Christian Bok,
Joe Dunthorne, Inua Ellams, Roddy Lumsden, Ian McMillan, Paul
Muldoon, Ruth Padel and Hannah Silva. Edited and introduced by Tom
Chivers.
City State showcases the work of twenty-seven London writers
between the ages of 16 and 36. From hyperlinked walks of Battersea
bombsites and guerilla gardening projects to jagged urban lyrics
and dark hymns to the East End, City State presents a confident,
entertaining and truly diverse snapshot of the best new poetry from
London.
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and
amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact
of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his
theorem - independently discovered a few years later by
Pierre-Simon Laplace, the great French mathematician - was mainly
seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its
implications soon became clear, affecting fields as diverse as
medicine, law and artificial intelligence. Bayes' theorem helps
explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false
positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to
account for it in court it has put innocent people in jail. But its
influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of
rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and
forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who
outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue
that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of
almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of
rationality. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication
and intellectual history, EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE is a
captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life.
From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows
how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
Where can the poem go in the age of the supercomputer? What do
Wordsworth, Byron and British rapper Roots Manuva have in common?
Would Emily Dickinson have preferred Facebook or Twitter? Does the
future look - Oulipian? Is slam poetry any good, and what is
"post-avant" anyway? These are just some of the questions posed in
Stress Fractures, a new and wide-ranging collection of essays on
the future of poetry.
Are paperclips going to destroy life as we know it?
What can Mickey Mouse teach us about how to programme AI?
Could a more rational approach to life be what saves us all?
This is a book about about a community of people who are trying to
think rationally about intelligence and what insight they can and can't
give us about the future of the human race. It explains why these
people are worried about an AI apocalypse, why they might be right, and
why they might be wrong. It is a book about the cutting edge of our
thinking on intelligence and rationality right now by the people who
stay up all night worrying about it.
How To Build A City is the Crashaw Prize-winning debut collection
of poetry by Tom Chivers. It is a poetic interrogation of the
twenty-first century urban experience, drawing on the history,
culture, society and topography of London. Chivers takes his cue
from radical writers such as Iain Sinclair and Barry MacSweeney to
create an impressionist poetry, marked by playful riddling, found
texts and unusual juxtapositions. How To Build A City is peopled by
ghosts of London's past as well as the distinctly modern spectres
of spam email, international terrorism and the credit crunch. The
title piece is a choppy, sardonic investigation of contemporary
East London, a travelogue that never really leaves Liverpool Street
Station. Some of the poems are personal accounts of love and loss,
including 'Thom, C & I', a long sequence of lyrical fragments
cut from a diary written by the poet's mother. Other poems take the
reader away from the city to the fenlands of Medieval East Anglia,
apple-heavy Himalayan gardens and the bleak uplands of Northern
England. How To Build A City captures the mood of a fluctuating,
unstable metropolis that is continually coming to terms with
multiple and conflicting identities.
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