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The water and power industries, including the most
capital-intensive producers of goods and services in our economy,
are exposed to financial risks of staggering proportions. With
projects that are routinely large and require long-term planning,
and with demand and supply often highly volatile, costs regularly
defy prediction. Still, there has been little explicit analysis of
financial risk in the water and power industries. In this work, C.
Vaughan Jones provides a comprehensive discussion of financial risk
and risk analysis for these utilities. Writing in clear,
straightforward language, he explores the application of risk
analysis to construction projects, rate-setting and price effects,
and customer characteristics.
In developing a method for evaluating risk, Jones brings
together material from business, engineering, economics,
demography, probability theory, computer simulation, and policy
studies. The materials are organized around risk factors affecting
costs and revenues, and support a practical analysis with
spreadsheet and simulation examples. Separate chapters present
findings relating to the variability of construction costs,
customer demand, and population growth. Together with qualitative
information about risks, these chapters offer suggestions about
quantitative representation of relevant patterns of variability of
key risk sources. The techniques are integrated in simulation
models dealing with contract risk, the evaluation of sinking funds
and amortization schedules, and long-run capacity planning. The
concluding chapters summarize major findings, consider issues of
reliability and validation, and discuss the way in which this
analysis can be applied to a variety of infrastructure investments.
Finance and investment professionals and students in business and
finance studies will find this work to be a useful reference tool.
For public and academic libraries, it will represent a valuable
addition to their collections.
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