Political shocks have come to be considered highly salient for explaining major changes to international politics and to the foreign policies of states. Such shocks can occur at all levels of analysis: domestically, dyadically, regionally, or globally. They range from political phenomena such as coups and wars to ecological catastrophes. These shocks are sufficiently disruptive to cause foreign policy makers to reconsider their foreign policy orientations and to contemplate major changes to their policies. In fact, some have argued that it is mostly through political shocks that fundamental policy change occurs in most states. No wonder then that political shocks are now increasingly part of the toolbox of considerations used by foreign policy and international relations scholars as they focus on understanding patterns of conflict and cooperation between states.  Given the salience of political shocks to understand foreign policy change, this book brings together a group of both senior and more junior scholars whose previous work has shown substantial promise for moving forward theory and empirical analysis. Their combined efforts in this book highlight the value of multiple theoretical and empirical approaches to a clearer understanding of the nature of political shocks and their consequences for foreign policy and international politics.

This book discusses the role of space, time and cyclical behavior in world politics. More specifically, the political-economic role of lead economies - the world's most innovative economies for finite periods of time - in world politics. These represent unusual concentrations of new technologies, energy sources, and military capabilities of global reach that play disproportional roles in the conduct of international affairs and the provision of limited governance at the most macro level. They also possess close links to economic growth and intense conflict. The book describes the economic, military and political processes behind the systemic leadership of a state at the international level. It also highlights the economic preconditions of systemic leadership, such as economic monopoly of new technologies and energy, which underlie the system leader's material advantage over others. Analyzing lead economies and the evolution of power over a number of centuries, the author demonstrates how disruptions wrought by the emergence of new technologies and energy sources are partly responsible for global conflicts. This book appeals to international relations scholars as well as anyone interested in the political economy of systemic leadership, growth, and conflict in world politics.

This edited book complements and follows up on the book, Thompson and Volgy et al, Regions, Power and Conflict: Constrained Capabilities, Hierarchy, and Rivalry.  It is predicated in part on the paucity of published material available on comparing regional international politics. Monadic, dyadic, and systemic approaches all have their uses and have been exploited extensively. The same cannot be said about comparative regional analysis.  The premise is that a great deal of international politics takes place within regional parameters.  Most states simply lack the capability or interest in devoting many resources to extra-regional affairs. Yet each region is distinctive.  In some, military coups remain common while they have died out as a form of political practice in others.  A few have been highly conflictual and then become more pacific, while others persist in their conflict intensity.  Some have powerful neighbors with intervention tendencies, while others are surrounded by relatively weak states. Some are rich; others are poor. The point is that regions, all with proper names, have attributes that can be harnessed through comparison to explain why regional behavior differs greatly across the planet. The aim is to replace the proper names with the leading variables that appear to drive behavior. For instance, to shrug and say “that’s the Middle East for you� does not take us very far.  Replacing the Middle East label with conceptualization about how a set of small, weak, autocratic states behave subject to high penetration by major powers might take us farther than shrugging off regional identity.     We have good reasons to think that comparative regional analysis can deliver an explanatory value-added product just as much as alternative “levels of analysis� can.  Ultimately, we might desire to integrate separate levels of analysis, rather than segregating them.  But in the short term, we need to encourage comparative regional analysis because it is the least developed perspective.  Why that might be the case can be debated, but it stems in part from our disciplinary tendencies for some analysts to specialize in regional behavior largely in a descriptive vein while others prefer to focus on explaining universal behavior.  Comparative regional behavior tends to be squeezed out by regional scholars who suspect generalization about behavior and universal scholars who suspect particular contexts such as regions.  Comparative regional analysis requires analysts who are willing to explore generalization but acknowledge regional contexts more explicitly than is customary.  At the same time, more general substitutes for those regional labels must be introduced if explanatory headway is to be achieved.         

Shocks and Rivalries in the Middle East and North Africa is the first book to examine issue-driven antagonisms within groups of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states and their impact on relations within the region. The volume also considers how shock events, such as internal revolts and regional wars, can alter interstate tensions and the trajectory of conflict. MENA has experienced more internal rivalries than any other region, making a detailed analysis vital to understanding the region's complex political, cultural, and economic history. The state groupings studied in this volume include Israel and Iran; Iran and Saudi Arabia; Iran and Turkey; Iran, Iraq, and Syria; Egypt and Saudi Arabia; and Algeria and Morocco. Essays are theoretically driven, breaking the MENA region down into a collection of systems that exemplify how state and nonstate actors interact around certain issues. Through this approach, contributors shed rare light on the origins, persistence, escalation, and resolution of MENA rivalries and trace significant patterns of regional change. Shocks and Rivalries in the Middle East and North Africa makes a major contribution to scholarship on MENA antagonisms. It not only addresses an understudied phenomenon in the international relations of the MENA region, it also expands our knowledge of rivalry dynamics in global politics.

Originally published in 1989, this is an empirical study of the impact of global war on the expansion and shaping of nation-states. Individual chapters examine the effects of such wars, and the preparation for them, on debt financing, expansion, military spending, welfare spending, GNP and domestic violence. The authors conclude that by virtue of the changes they spurn, global wars are inherently ‘accelerators of social change’.

Environmental factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have played a crucial role in the historical and social development of the region. The book delves into a broad set of historical literature from the past 15,000 years that neglected to consider environmental factors to their full effect. Beyond the broad historic analysis, the chapters derive conclusions for today's debate on whether climate change leads to more social conflict and violence. Introducing a theoretical framework focused on adaptive cycling, this book probes and refines the role of climate in ancient and modern political-economic systems in the MENA region. It also underscores just how bad the 21st-century environment may become thanks to global warming. While the MENA region may not survive the latest onslaught of deteriorating climate, there is also some interest in how a region that once led the world in introducing all sorts of innovations thousands of years ago has evolved into a contemporary setting characterized by traditional conservatism, poverty, and incessant strife. Emphasizing regional dynamics, the book's central question deals with the role of climate change in the rise and decline of the MENA region. The book will be a key resource to students and readers interested in global warming, including academics and policymakers.

Environmental factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have played a crucial role in the historical and social development of the region. The book delves into a broad set of historical literature from the past 15,000 years that neglected to consider environmental factors to their full effect. Beyond the broad historic analysis, the chapters derive conclusions for today's debate on whether climate change leads to more social conflict and violence. Introducing a theoretical framework focused on adaptive cycling, this book probes and refines the role of climate in ancient and modern political-economic systems in the MENA region. It also underscores just how bad the 21st-century environment may become thanks to global warming. While the MENA region may not survive the latest onslaught of deteriorating climate, there is also some interest in how a region that once led the world in introducing all sorts of innovations thousands of years ago has evolved into a contemporary setting characterized by traditional conservatism, poverty, and incessant strife. Emphasizing regional dynamics, the book's central question deals with the role of climate change in the rise and decline of the MENA region. The book will be a key resource to students and readers interested in global warming, including academics and policymakers.

Several dramatic changes in international relations at the end of the 20th century seemed to suggest that rivalries (and the conflicts that often result) between states were receding. The Soviet-American Cold War ended, but the Indo-Pakistani feud refuses to go away. Argentina and Britain seem most unlikely to fight again over the Falklands, but North and South Korea persist in maintaining their hostile divided status. The question remains therefore-is conflict increasing or decreasing? To answer that question, it is important to first understand how the rivalry processes-and therefore the genesis of conflict-work. Handbook to International Rivalries examines the roughly 200 strategic rivalries-two states that view each other as threatening competitors to the point that they categorize their antagonists as enemies-that have been responsible for nearly 80 percent of the warfare of the past two hundred years. After a preface from J. David Singer, the founder of The Correlates of War Project, this reference delves into standardized narratives of the rivalries that include discussions of their origins, the levels of conflict achieved and the resolutions. Handbook to International Rivalries also includes a comprehensive bibliography and a chronological listing of rivalries by region, time and type.

The field of international relations is often stagnated in realism and liberalism. Groundbreaking and guaranteed to stir debate, this work will move the field of international relations beyond its current and often inadequate assumptions. The contributors describe how states, ideologies and other areas of analysis evolve, conquer others, or disappear entirely.

Originally published in 1989, this is an empirical study of the impact of global war on the expansion and shaping of nation-states. Individual chapters examine the effects of such wars, and the preparation for them, on debt financing, expansion, military spending, welfare spending, GNP and domestic violence. The authors conclude that by virtue of the changes they spurn, global wars are inherently 'accelerators of social change'.

In the post-Cold War era, economic globalization has loomed, at least for some, as the world system's next crisis carrier, creating winners and losers and trampling on the distinctiveness of local cultures. Yet the liberal assumption is that if the market does its job, the poor will catch up to the rich via trade-driven growth and the economies of developed and less developed countries will gradually converge.

Investigating the processes of economic globalization, this book explores whether it is truly a "global" process. It examines how globalization is experienced around the world, comparing its intensity and impact in both the global North and South. Using a world systems approach and developing a theoretical analysis that builds on the leadership long-cycle approach to global political economy, this book seeks to dispel some of the myths widely propagated regarding economic development. Through a focus on the issues of technological diffusion, debt, conflict, and democratisation, the authors demonstrate how and why the asymmetries that have characterized the global North and South in the past and present are growing more acute.

This important book will be of interest to students and scholars of international political economy, globalisation, international trade and development.

The term globalization has gained widespread popularity; yet most treatments are either descriptive and/or focused on changes in economic interconnectivity. In this volume the concept is seen in broader terms as leading international experts from a range of disciplines develop a long-term analysis to address the problems of globalization.

The editors and contributors develop a framework for understanding the origins and trajectory of contemporary world trends, constructing testable and verifiable models of globalization. They demonstrate how the evolutionary approach allows us to view globalization as an enterprise of the human species as a whole focusing on the analytical problem of global change and the rules governing those changes. The emphasis is not on broad-based accounts of the course of world affairs but, selectively, on processes that reshape the social of the human species, the making of world opinion and the innovations that animate these developments.

Chapters are clustered into four foci. One emphasizes the interpretation of globalization as an explicitly evolutionary process. A second looks at historical sequences of such phenomena as population growth or imperial rise and decline as processes that can be modeled and not purely described. The third cluster examines ongoing changes in economic processes, especially information technology. A final cluster takes on some of the challenges associated with forecasting and simulating the complexities of globalization processes.

This innovative and important volume will be of interest to students and scholars across the social sciences concerned with the phenomenon of globalization.

The term globalization has gained widespread popularity; yet most treatments are either descriptive and/or focused on changes in economic interconnectivity. In this volume the concept is seen in broader terms as leading international experts from a range of disciplines develop a long-term analysis to address the problems of globalization.

The editors and contributors develop a framework for understanding the origins and trajectory of contemporary world trends, constructing testable and verifiable models of globalization. They demonstrate how the evolutionary approach allows us to view globalization as an enterprise of the human species as a whole focusing on the analytical problem of global change and the rules governing those changes. The emphasis is not on broad-based accounts of the course of world affairs but, selectively, on processes that reshape the social of the human species, the making of world opinion and the innovations that animate these developments.

Chapters are clustered into four foci. One emphasizes the interpretation of globalization as an explicitly evolutionary process. A second looks at historical sequences of such phenomena as population growth or imperial rise and decline as processes that can be modeled and not purely described. The third cluster examines ongoing changes in economic processes, especially information technology. A final cluster takes on some of the challenges associated with forecasting and simulating the complexities of globalization processes.

This innovative and important volume will be of interest to students and scholars across the social sciences concerned with the phenomenon of globalization.

The field of International Relations is often stagnated in realism and liberalism. Groundbreaking and guaranteed to stir debate, this work will move the field of International Relations beyond its current and often inadequate assumptions. The contributors describe how states, ideologies and other areas of analysis evolve, conquer others, or disappear entirely.

International conflict is neither random nor inexplicable. It is highly structured by antagonisms between a relatively small set of states that regard each other as rivals. Examining the 173 strategic rivalries in operation throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, this book identifies the differences rivalries make in the probability of conflict escalation and analyzes how they interact with serial crises, arms races, alliances and capability advantages. The authors distinguish between rivalries concerning territorial disagreement (space) and rivalries concerning status and influence (position) and show how each leads to markedly different patterns of conflict escalation. They argue that rivals are more likely to engage in international conflict with their antagonists than non-rival pairs of states and conclude with an assessment of whether we can expect democratic peace, economic development and economic interdependence to constrain rivalry-induced conflict.

Shocks and Rivalries in the Middle East and North Africa is the first book to examine issue-driven antagonisms within groups of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states and their impact on relations within the region. The volume also considers how shock events, such as internal revolts and regional wars, can alter interstate tensions and the trajectory of conflict. MENA has experienced more internal rivalries than any other region, making a detailed analysis vital to understanding the region's complex political, cultural, and economic history. The state groupings studied in this volume include Israel and Iran; Iran and Saudi Arabia; Iran and Turkey; Iran, Iraq, and Syria; Egypt and Saudi Arabia; and Algeria and Morocco. Essays are theoretically driven, breaking the MENA region down into a collection of systems that exemplify how state and nonstate actors interact around certain issues. Through this approach, contributors shed rare light on the origins, persistence, escalation, and resolution of MENA rivalries and trace significant patterns of regional change. Shocks and Rivalries in the Middle East and North Africa makes a major contribution to scholarship on MENA antagonisms. It not only addresses an understudied phenomenon in the international relations of the MENA region, it also expands our knowledge of rivalry dynamics in global politics.

The most typical treatment of international relations is to conceive it as a battle between two antagonistic states volleying back and forth. In reality, interstate relations are often at least two-level games in which decision-makers operate not only in an international environment but also in a "competitive domestic" context.
Given that interstate rivalries are responsible for a disproportionate share of discord in world politics, this book sets out to explain just how these two-level rivalries really work.
By reference to specific cases, specialists on Asian rivalries examine three related questions: what is the mix of internal (domestic politics) and external (interstate politics) stimuli in the dynamics of their rivalries; in what types of circumstances do domestic politics become the predominant influence on rivalry dynamics; when domestic politics become predominant, is their effect more likely to lead to the escalation or de-escalation of rivalry hostility? By pulling together the threads laid out by each contributor, the editors create a 'grounded theory' for interstate rivalries that breaks new ground in international relations theory.

A unique analysis that assesses how we can determine which country will be the next world leader. Will China surpass the United States as the world's leader? In American Global Pre-eminence, William R. Thompson argues that the answer depends on leads in technological innovation, energy, and global reach. These are the forces that influence the hierarchy of global power-a system which began emerging a thousand years ago and started becoming more evident after the 1490s, especially after Dutch activities in the seventeenth century and British operations in the nineteenth century. The US followed in this fashion after 1945. Yet leads do not last forever. Ironically, as it becomes clearer how technological innovation, military force, and energy power interact, the processes under scrutiny may themselves be fundamentally transforming. Thus, Thompson contends, the real policy question is not whether the US is ahead or behind China but, rather, whether it will remain possible for a single state to lead the global system. As technological innovation, energy consumption, and global reach capability grow less concentrated, the prospects for systemic leadership shrink-even as global problems become more complex and acute. With a sweeping analysis of global power, Thompson provides a foundation for understanding the realities and possibilities of lead states past, present, and future.

Strategic rivalries are contests between states that view one another as threatening competitors and treat each other as enemies. A disproportionate amount of interstate conflict is generated by a relatively small number of these pairs of states engaged in rivalries that can persist for years. Thus, to understand interstate peace and conflict, it is useful to know how rivalries work in general and more specifically. In the past two decades, a strenuous effort has been mounted to introduce the concept of rivalry and demonstrate its utility in unraveling conflict situations. Yet all rivalries are not exactly alike. We need to move to a more rewarding differentiation of how they differ in general. Principal rivalries are those antagonisms that are most significant to the decision makers in a state. The main distinction on issues about which rivals dispute are positional and spatial concerns. Positional rivalries contend over regional and global influence. Spatial rivals contend over which state deserves to control disputed territory. Interventionary rivalries predominate in sub-Saharan Africa. Their primary focus involves neighboring states attempting to influence who rules and how co-ethnics are treated. This book updates the inventory of strategic rivalries from 1816 to 2020. Principal rivalries are identified for the first time and cover the same period. A theory stressing the two main types of rivalry (positional and spatial) is elaborated and tested. Regional variations on the origins and terminations of spatial rivalry are explored and interpreted. In addition, attention is paid to fluctuations in the intensity of positional rivalries by examining the working of the contemporary major power triangle (United States, Soviet Union/Russia, and China) and, more generally, the dynamics of regional power that are rising in terms of their relative capability and status in the system. Variations in cooperation and termination dynamics both in general and according to rivalry type are also examined. Overall, the emphases of the book are split between demonstrating the utility of distinguishing among rivalry types and examining selected rivalry dynamics.

In this far-reaching exploration of the evolution of warfare in human history, Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson provide insight into the perennial questions of why and how humans fight. Beginning with the origins of warfare among foraging groups, "The Arc of War" draws on a wealth of empirical data to enhance our understanding of how war began and how it has changed over time. The authors point to the complex interaction of political economy, political and military organization, military technology, and the threat environment - all of which create changing incentives for states and other actors. They conclude that those actors that adapt survive, and those that do not are eliminated. In modern times, warfare between major powers has become exceedingly costly and therefore quite rare, while lesser powers are too weak to fight sustained and decisive wars or to prevent internal rebellions. Conceptually innovative and historically sweeping, "The Arc of War" represents a significant contribution to the existing literature on warfare.

International conflict is neither random nor inexplicable. It is highly structured by antagonisms between a relatively small set of states that regard each other as rivals. Examining the 173 strategic rivalries in operation throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, this book identifies the differences rivalries make in the probability of conflict escalation and analyzes how they interact with serial crises, arms races, alliances and capability advantages. The authors distinguish between rivalries concerning territorial disagreement (space) and rivalries concerning status and influence (position) and show how each leads to markedly different patterns of conflict escalation. They argue that rivals are more likely to engage in international conflict with their antagonists than non-rival pairs of states and conclude with an assessment of whether we can expect democratic peace, economic development and economic interdependence to constrain rivalry-induced conflict.

A unique analysis that assesses how we can determine which country will be the next world leader. Will China surpass the United States as the world's leader? In American Global Pre-eminence, William R. Thompson argues that the answer depends on leads in technological innovation, energy, and global reach. These are the forces that influence the hierarchy of global power-a system which began emerging a thousand years ago and started becoming more evident after the 1490s, especially after Dutch activities in the seventeenth century and British operations in the nineteenth century. The US followed in this fashion after 1945. Yet leads do not last forever. Ironically, as it becomes clearer how technological innovation, military force, and energy power interact, the processes under scrutiny may themselves be fundamentally transforming. Thus, Thompson contends, the real policy question is not whether the US is ahead or behind China but, rather, whether it will remain possible for a single state to lead the global system. As technological innovation, energy consumption, and global reach capability grow less concentrated, the prospects for systemic leadership shrink-even as global problems become more complex and acute. With a sweeping analysis of global power, Thompson provides a foundation for understanding the realities and possibilities of lead states past, present, and future.

In the post-Cold War era, economic globalization has loomed, at least for some, as the world system's next crisis carrier, creating winners and losers and trampling on the distinctiveness of local cultures. Yet the liberal assumption is that if the market does its job, the poor will catch up to the rich via trade-driven growth and the economies of developed and less developed countries will gradually converge. Investigating the processes of economic globalization, this book explores whether it is truly a "global" process. It examines how globalization is experienced around the world, comparing its intensity and impact in both the global North and South. Using a world systems approach and developing a theoretical analysis that builds on the leadership long-cycle approach to global political economy, this book seeks to dispel some of the myths widely propagated regarding economic development. Through a focus on the issues of technological diffusion, debt, conflict, and democratisation, the authors demonstrate how and why the asymmetries that have characterized the global North and South in the past and present are growing more acute. This important book will be of interest to students and scholars of international political economy, globalisation, international trade and development.