What does our future hold? Will the ANC split within the next five years? Could the DA rule the country in 2024? Will the EFF form an alliance with the ANC? What should we do to make our economy grow at levels that will impact on poverty and inequality? Will we become a more tolerant or a more violent society?

In Fate of the Nation scenario expert Jakkie Cilliers answers all these and many other questions. He has developed three detailed scenarios for our immediate future and beyond – Bafana Bafana, Nation Divided and Mandela Magic.

According to Cilliers the ANC is in many ways paralysed by the power struggle between what he calls the Traditionalists (supporters of Jacob Zuma) and the Reformers (led by Cyril Ramaphosa and others). This power struggle leads to policy confusion, poor leadership and general ineptitude in the civil service. Key to which scenario will become our reality is who will be elected to the ANC’s top leadership at their national conference in December 2017. Whichever group wins will determine what our future holds. We could also see a compromise grouping being selected, Cilliers says, in which case the Bafana Bafana scenario – where we simply muddle along as a country – is the strongest possibility.

A book for all concerned South Africans.

In this book, Ahmed Tohamy analyses the often-neglected trajectory that led up to the protests in Egypt that culminated in the fall of Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. Tohamy's assertion is that by examining the decade preceding this momentous event, we see that the youth movement far from being inert was extremely active. Tohamy uses the Social Movements Theory to argue how Egyptian youth became a new agent of change in the Middle East. By positioning the youth activists as dynamically engaging with their social and political contexts within a framework of opportunities and constraints, his analysis strikes at the heart of the debates concerning the nature and substance of revolution and its effects on state and society."

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This study focuses on Christianity and black nationalism in South Africa and looks at four individuals--Albert Lutuli, Robert Sobukwe, Steve Biko, and Desmond Tutu--to see how each leader's Christian beliefs influenced the political strategy he pursued. Just as theology (Calvinism) was significant in the formulation of Afrikaner nationalism, so too has theology, variously interpreted, been instrumental in the articulation of African nationalism. The African National Congress (ANC), the Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC), the Black Consciousness Movement (BCM), and the United Democratic Front (UDF) all relied on a Christian perspective and vocabulary to articulate the goals of black nationalism. By tracing this religious thread through each of these various resistance movements, the author has made a fascinating contribution to the literature of comparative politics, African studies, and the sociology of religion.

A seminal work on the power of nonviolent action, this classic book outlines, in a systematic way, the elements involved in successfully opposing military dictatorships by passive means. This work shows how nonviolent action grows from the fact that all governments depend on the cooperation, or at least the general compliance, of the people they govern and in particular on the loyalty of key institutions. From there, it discusses how, if a government's base of support in society is eroded, it becomes increasingly difficult for it to govern, to the point where it can no longer rely on these crucial institutions of administration, persuasion, and coercion. This edition also considers historical evidence, insists on the importance of advance planning and preparation, and identifies key factors to be taken into account in devising sound strategies and tactics. Tactics and strategies that may be adapted for various circumstances are also included.

Based on more than one hundred interviews and group discussions with low-ranking soldiers, conscripts, and volunteers, this volume provides a unique perspective on the history, and analyzes the current status, of soldier unions and resistance movements in more than twenty countries. Beginning with the isolated, spontaneous incidents that characterized military protest in the mid-1960s, the study traces the changing profile of resistance movements in the conscript armies of Europe; the volunteer forces of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, and Australia; and the armed forces of Portugal, Chile, Iran, and the Phillipines. From the information and data collected, David Cortright and Max Watts hypothesize that resistance among low-ranking soldiers occurs only in countries with a high degree of capital accumulation, a new concept they refer to as the Threshold Theory of Military Resistance. Support for the Threshold Theory is based on data extracted from in-depth descriptions of the origins and organization of military unions and protest movements in Holland, West Germany, Scandinavia, France, Italy, Spain, East Germany, and the Soviet Union, as well as in countries below the threshold. A detailed examination of the United States army's resistance activities after the Vietnam conflict, its attempted unionization, and its continuing struggle with lack of discipline and low morale completes the global scope of this work. It will offer military sociologists, scholars, social scientists, soldiers, and veterans a singular survey of the dynamics of protest within the military around the world.

Occupying Political Science is a collection of critical essays by New York based scholars, researchers, and activists, which takes an unconventional look at the Occupy Wall Street movement through concepts found in the field of political science. Both normative and descriptive in its approach, Occupying Political Science seeks to understand not only the origins, logic, and prospects of the OWS movement, but also its effect on political institutions, activism, and the very way we analyze power. It does so by asking questions such as: How does OWS make us rethink the discipline of political science, and how might the political science discipline offer ways to understand and illuminate aspects of OWS? How does social location influence OWS, our efforts to understand it, and the social science that we do? Through addressing topics including social movements and non-violent resistance, surveillance and means of social control, electoral arrangements, new social media and technology, and global connections, the authors offer a unique approach that takes seriously the implications of their physical, social and disciplinary location, in New York, both in relation to Occupy Wall Street, and in their role as scholars in political science.

During times of grave injustice, some individuals, groups, and organizations courageously resist maltreatment of all people, regardless of their backgrounds. Courageous resisters have assisted others in such locales as Nazi-controlled Europe throughout the 1930s and 40s, Argentina during the "Dirty War" of the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s genocide and Iraqi prisons in recent years. Using these and other case studies, this book introduces readers to the broad spectrum of courageous resistance and provides a framework for analyzing the factors that motivate and sustain opposition to human rights violations.

A SPECTATOR and PROSPECT Book of the Year 'Ceaselessly interesting, knowledgeable and evocative' Spectator 'A fresh way to write history' Alan Johnson 'A quirky, amused, erudite homage to France . . . ambitious and original' The Times _____ France: An Adventure History is a profoundly original and endlessly entertaining history of France, from the first century BC to the present day, based on countless new discoveries and thirty years of exploring France on foot, by bicycle and in the library. Beginning with the Roman army's first recorded encounter with the Gauls and ending with the Gilets Jaunes protests in the era of Emmanuel Macron, each chapter is an adventure in its own right. Along the way, readers will find the usual faces, events and themes of French history - Louis XIV, the French Revolution, the French Resistance, the Tour de France - but all presented in a shining new light. Graham Robb does not offer a standard dry list of facts and dates, but instead a panorama of France, teeming with characters, full of stories, journeys and coincidences, giving readers a thrilling sense of discovery and enlightenment. France: An Adventure History is a vivid, living history of one of the world's most fascinating nations by a ceaselessly entertaining writer in complete command of subject and style. _____ 'A rich and vibrant narrative . . . clear-eyed but imaginative storytelling' Financial Times 'Full of life' Prospect

This work provides a broad survey of the development of female insurgency in France between 1789 and 1871, placing particular emphasis on the conflicts of 1830-1851. The author demonstrates that a tradition of women's protest evolved from the 1789 Revolution, assuming particular forms associated with the exclusion of females from political and civil rights, and inviting both praise and vilification. The conclusions challenge the view that in 19th-century France, women retreated altogether from popular movements.

This book describes the origins and birth of Solidarity in 1980, its rebirth in 1989, and the formation of a Solidarity government. This second edition is now enlarged to include fresh documentation of the 1980 strike, a further mmoire on the experts' role 'behind the scenes', and an entirely new chapter 'From Gdansk to Government'. Taken together, the analysis and documentation provide a permanent record of Eastern Europe's first breakthrough into post-communism.

South Africa has become a nation defined by its protests. Protests can, and do, bring societal problems to public attention in direct, at times dramatic, ways. But governments the world over are also tempted to suppress this right, as they often feel threatened by public challenges to their authority. Apartheid South Africa had a shameful history of repressing protests. The architects of the country's democracy expressed a determination to break with this past and recognise protest as a basic democratic right. Yet, today, there is concern about the violent nature of protests.

Protest Nation challenges the dominant narrative that it has become necessary for the state to step in to limit the right to protest in the broader public interest because media and official representations have created a public perception that violence has become endemic to protests. Bringing together data gathered from municipalities, the police, protestor and activist interviews, as well as media reports, the book analyses the extent to which the right to protest is respected in democratic South Africa. It throws a spotlight on the municipal role in enabling or mostly thwarting the right.

This book is a call to action to defend the right to protest: a right that is clearly under threat. It also urges South Africans to critique the often-skewed public discourses that inform debates about protests and their limitations.

The Arab Spring put non-governmental public action centre-stage in the drive for greater social justice. Governments, politicians and international institutions increasingly court non-governmental public actors, engaging them in policy dialogue, inviting them to participate in the delivery of social services, and looking to them to re-invigorate democratic politics. This unique collection explores the different organizational forms, strategies and tactics that activists adopt to pursue social justice goals and analyses how histories of resistance impinge on contemporary activism in both positive and negative ways. The authors examine how established corporatist trades unions struggle to reform as new forms of labour resistance challenge their legitimacy and proximity to government. They analyse how non-governmental public actors negotiate various 'civil society dilemmas' that emerge in the new spaces for collaboration opened up by government, focusing particularly on threats to their values, autonomy and legitimacy. They also explore the efforts of non-governmental public actors to secure greater justice in the sphere of production and distribution, be that through co-operatives or through consumer rights activism around access to essential drugs.

Which elements do the Arab Spring, the Indignados and Occupy Wall Street have in common? How do they differ? What do they share with social movements of the past? This book discusses the recent wave of global mobilisations from an unusual angle, explaining what aspects of protests spread from one country to another, how this happened, and why diffusion occurred in certain contexts but not in others. In doing this, the book casts light on the more general mechanisms of protest diffusion in contemporary societies, explaining how mobilisations travel from one country to another and, also, from past to present times.Bridging different fields of the social sciences, and covering a broad range of empirical cases, this book develops new theoretical perspectives.

This two-part book examines the roots of warfare and the development of the peace movement in America from the Colonial period through the Vietnam War. From the Colonial period on, war has inevitably divided U.S. society into pro-war and antiwar factions, and few subjects have proven so polarizing or long-lasting as a nexus of public discourse. In the contest over war and peace, uninformed beliefs have been conflated with uncontested truths by both sides, fueling a lack of bipartisanship in foreign policy that has been prevalent since the nation's earliest days. A History of War Resistance in America delineates clearly the tradition of war opposition in the United States. It examines the military, preparations for war, and war's justifiable prosecution, as well as pacifism, legitimate resistance to war, and the appropriate and free exercise of civil liberties. This thought-provoking volume offers an analysis of the reasons for conflict among peoples, the prosecution of war among nations, and the development of war resistance movements. It also explores the role of the media in forming public opinion and that of the courts in protecting—or limiting—civil liberties.

Why do people join social movements? What keeps them involved once they have joined? These central questions in the study of social movements are newly investigated in this study of the interwar Green Shirt Movement. The Green Shirts are the only example in Britain of an anti-war, mixed sex youth movement which became a uniformed, political organisation, marching the streets and mobilising amongst the unemployed. Half a century after the movement came to an end it remains, for surviving members, the most important experience of their lives. This book uses their experiences to cast new light on the concepts of commitment, charisma and affiliation in social movements.

This book argues that although the mob and the people appear to be very separate concepts, they share a common ideological history. Hayes traces the developments undergone by the concepts of people and mob in modern European ideologies, and he examines Marx's depiction of the lumpenproletariat, Le Bon's analysis of the crowd, fascist depictions of the masses, and corporatist views of the political threat posed by the mob. He also discusses the implications of the distinction between the people and the mob for democracy providing a case study of the 1984-85 British miner's strike and reviewing the rhetoric of politicians in the new democracies of Eastern Europe.

"The People and the Mob" examines the ideological depiction of the masses from the time of the French Revolution to the democratization of Eastern Europe. During this period, Hayes explains how political activists seeking popular appeal have increasingly identified mass social groups in positive rather than negative terms, as the people rather than the mob. However, Hayes argues that although the bulk of the population has come to be identified with the people, the concept of the mob has not disappeared from political discourse, but has rather been redifined to refer to a vicious minority. The ideological significance of this concept of the mob is made clear by Hayes's examination of Marx's depiction of the lumpenproleteriat, Le Bon's analysis of the crowd, fascist propaganda, and corporatist views of society and government. Throughout his analysis, Hayes finds the concept of the mob to be closely tied to that of the people in a way that indicates ambiguous, inconsistent, or opportunist attitudes toward mass social groups. Hayes investigates the implications of such attitudes for democracy by considering political conflicts in the 1984-85 British miners' strike, and in the new democracies of Eastern Europe.

The People and the Mob explains how and why the concept of the mob has been incorporated into several forms of ideoloy that claim to speak for the people. This important finding is supported by Hayes's identification of a social analysis in which financiers and the mob are linked to each other, and separated from the people, using moral criteria of the work ethic. It is also supported by his explanation of the popular rhetorical appeal of political condemnations of the mob. Hayes shows that these rhetorical appeals and social distinctions are found in the ideology of both right and left. He demonstrates that even Marx has adopted such an ideology through his highly original interpretation of the class structure developed by Marx to explain events in France. Hayes's conclusions extend the fields of politicl theory and the history of ideas. The People and the Mob is useful to anyone interested in Marxism, crowd theory, fascism, corporatism, civil conflict in Europe, and the problems of modern democracy.

This is the first full modern biography of Ernest Jones (1819-69), the last of the Chartist leaders. This book combines an account of his colourful political career in the age of reform with an overdue assessment of his literary achievement.

This book deals with Solzhenitsyn and Sakharov as political philosophers, presenting their philosophies in a comparative framework. He sets their dissident activities within the larger framework of the emergence of dissent in contemporary Soviet society. Both men are recognized as the products of their life experiences, their occupations as author and scientist respectively, their views of the social and political legitimacy of the current Soviet regime, and their hopes for the future as expressed in their images of the ideal Soviet society. This work also compares the Solzhenitsyn-Sakharov dialogue to the ongoing debate in western nations about the nature and future of industrial society, and clarifies the ideologies of two key figures in the modern-day Russian dissident movement.

On a perfect summer's day in August - as a faint breeze cooled the heat of the noonday sun and gently lifted the flags to display their mottoes and emblems - a huge crowd, mainly of working people, gathered on St Peter's Field in Manchester to discuss the universal right to vote that we now all take for granted. Conspicuously present at the meeting were women, the breeze dishevelling their long hair as they enthusiastically doffed their hats to cheer. Suddenly, before the proceedings could begin, the peaceful crowd was savagely dispersed, the work of charging cavalrymen wielding recently sharpened sabres, backed up by the truncheons of the constabulary and the bayonets of the infantry. When the screams had subsided and the dust had settled on the blood-stained ground, the true horror of the attack started to become clear. Over 650 were injured and more than 17 died, many women and children among them Drawing on eight surviving casualty lists, full of information about the victims and their attackers, Professor Michael Bush gives us the first truly objective assessment of the day's events. He shows that this was no mere act of dispersal. It was an act of terror and humiliation worthy of the epithet `massacre', and unequalled in the history of Britain.

Through critical analysis of Turkey's transformation under the AKP, this book explores the relationship between domestic transformations and global/regional dynamics. It also discusses the relationship between the Turkish transformation and the Arab uprisings and the implications of the Turkish case for regime transitions in the Arab world.

The Rise of the Radical Right in the Global South is the first academic study—adopting an interdisciplinary and international perspective—to offer a comprehensive and groundbreaking framework for understanding the emergence and consolidation of different radical-right movements in Global South countries in the twenty-first century. From deforestation and the anti-vaccine movement in Bolsonaro’s Brazil to the massacre of religious minorities in Modi’s India, the rise of the radical right in the Global South is in the news every day. Not long ago, some of these countries were globally celebrated as emerging economies that consolidated vibrant democracies. Nonetheless, they never overcame structural problems including economic inequality, social violence, cultural conservatism, and political authoritarianism. Featuring case studies from Brazil, India, the Philippines, and South Africa, and more generally from Africa and Latin America, this book analyses future scenarios and current alternatives to this political movement to the radical right. It proposes a shift of focus in examining such a trend, adopting a view from the Global South; conventional theoretical tools developed around the experience in Global North countries are not enough. The authors show that the radical right in the Global South should be analysed through specific lenses, considering national historical patterns of political and economic development and instability. They also warn that researching these countries may differ from contexts where democratic institutions are more reliable. This does not mean abandoning a transnational understanding of the radical right; rather, it calls for the opposite: the chapters examine how the radical right is invented, adapted, modified, and resisted in specific regions of the globe. This volume will be of interest to all those researching the radical right and the politics of development and the Global South.

War and revolution, economic crises and political conflict are the very stuff of modern history. This guide to the last 100 years of great power conflict, social rebellion, strikes and protests gives us the essential history of the world in which we live. Based on the Timeline TV series this is a rapid and accessible guide for those who want to know how power is exercised, by who, and for what purposes in the modern world. From the rise and fall of great empires in two world wars, the Cold War and the 'war on terror' through to the rise of China Timelines describes the shifts in the imperial structure of the world. And it looks at the impact of those changes in the conflict zones of the 21st century, including Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran. Finally Timelines looks at moments of popular resistance, from the Russian and Spanish revolutions to the fall of Apartheid in the 1990s and the ongoing socialist experiment that is Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. We live in turbulent times. These essays show us how we got here and outline the forces that are going to shape the history of the 21st century.

Contemporary France has witnessed a rise of new forms of social movement, mobilizing around new causes and articulating changing demands. Sarah Waters examines the new generation of movements of the 1990s, from anti-racism and the movement of the unemployed to solidarity or the associations of the "Sans." She argues that emerging movements share a profoundly civic dimension: these are movements about rights and are concerned with who has rights and what those rights are. They manifest a desire to reinvent citizenship in the present day in relation to a new set of social struggles and conflicts.