Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications.

Decision/option selection Manufacturing
Environmental assessment Pricing
Identification of business drivers Production sharing
Insurance Scheduling and optimization
Investing Security
Law

Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems.

The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure.

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Rejecting the idea that there are ready-made solutions to the challenges of constructing and managing knowledge in organizations, this book addresses the changing nature of knowledge construction and what can be achieved through innovative research practices. Key issues and debates include: working knowledge into the 21st century; the highly contextualized nature of research at work; post-modern perspectives on knowledge construction and practice and performance implications; the impact of globalization; the influences of new technology; language; power; and culture and gender upon the "construction" of knowledge. Leading experts from North America, Japan, Britain and Australia illustrate both practice and theory issues. This text should be of interest to researchers, teachers and students in the field of human resource management, policy-makers and all those concerned with continuing professional development.

This fascinating and controversial text makes sense of the complexities of research in the workplace and how 'working' knowledge is constructed. Featuring experts from Britain, Japan, North America and Australia, it is an outstanding contribution to the literature of Human Resource Management (HRM). It's interdisciplinary approach addresses key issues and debates such as:
* the influences of new technology, language, power, culture and gender upon the 'construction' of knowledge
* the impact of globalization
* working knowledge into the 21st century
* practice and performance implications.
It's outlook, geared towards the 21st century, makes it essential reading for researchers, teachers and students within HRM, policy-makers and all those concerned with professional development.

This book examines the need for information in support of decision-making in environmental health. It discusses indicators of environmental health, methods of data collection and the assessment of exposure to and the health impact of different environmental risk factors. It also discusses approaches to linkage analysis of grouped environmental and health data, including statistical and epidemiological issues and geographical infomation systems.
The book will be an invaluable source of information for researchers in public health, epidemiology and social science, as well as for environmental health data as part of local or national information systems.

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference.
The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages.
The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

In the fast moving world of the fourth industrial revolution not everyone needs to be a data scientist but everyone should be data literate, with the ability to read, analyze and communicate with data. It is not enough for a business to have the best data if those using it don't understand the right questions to ask or how to use the information generated to make decisions. Be Data Literate is the essential guide to developing the curiosity, creativity and critical thinking necessary to make anyone data literate, without retraining as a data scientist or statistician. With learnings to show development and real-world examples from industries implementing data literacy skills, this book explains how to confidently read and speak the 'language of data' in the modern business environment and everyday life. Be Data Literate is a practical guide to understanding the four levels of analytics, how to analyze data and the key steps to making smarter, data-informed decisions. Written by a founding pioneer and worldwide leading expert on data literacy, this book empowers professionals with the skills they need to succeed in the digital world.

Written for those interested in the topic of "shared knowledge" in organizations, this edited volume brings together a variety of themes and perspectives that emerge when multidisciplinary scholars examine this important subject. The papers were presented at a conference designed to bring together behavioral scientists who were interested in the creation, conversation, distribution, and protection of knowledge in organizations.
The editors bring together a distinguished group of social psychologists who have made important contributions to social cognition and group processes. They cast a wide net in terms of the topics covered and challenged the authors to think about how their research applies to the management or mismanagement of knowledge in organizations. The volume is divided into three sections: knowledge systems, emotional-motivational systems, and communication and behavioral systems. A final conclusion chapter discusses and integrates the various contributions.

The Psychology of Decision Making provides an overview of decision making as it relates to management, organizational behavior issues, and research. This engaging book examines the way individuals make decisions as well as how they form judgments privately and in the context of the organization. It also discusses the interplay of group and institutional dynamics and their effects upon the decisions made within and on the behalf of organizations. Researchers and advanced students in the field of organization science, social, and industrial psychology who want a better understanding of how the field has developed as a scholarly discipline and of the processes involved in decision making will find this an excellent resource. The Second Edition has been entirely revised and updated to reflect recent research and changing perspectives with the help of new co-author Terry Connolly, Finova Professor of Management and Policy at the University of Arizona. New to the Second Edition are: Latest developments in the field building on Prospect Theory Current research on Behavioral Theory Innovative suggestions by research scholars on subjects for new theoretical models

This is the first knowledge book in the Resources for the Knowledge-Based Economy Readers' series to link the two hot topics of knowledge and strategy. The book centers around the concept of treating organizational knowledge as a valuable strategy asset. Knowledge strategy is a natural extension of the historical development of business strategy in general. The book includes seminal articles on the subject as well as an introduction written by Michael Zack.

Links together knowledge and strategy
Seminal articles

Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb)

This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.

Examples showcased include:

The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome

This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.

A well-crafted business plan generates enthusiasm for your idea and boosts your odds of success--whether you're proposing a new initiative within your organization or starting an entirely new company. Creating Business Plans quickly walks you through the basics. You'll learn to: * Present your idea clearly * Develop sound financial plans * Project risks--and rewards * Anticipate and address your audience's concerns Don't have much time? Get up to speed fast on the most essential business skills with HBR's 20-Minute Manager series. Whether you need a crash course or a brief refresher, each book in the series is a concise, practical primer that will help you brush up on a key management topic. Advice you can quickly read and apply, for ambitious professionals and aspiring executives--from the most trusted source in business. Also available as an ebook.

An incredible ability awaits managers who practice Theory of Constraints (TOC) techniques: they can take a problem, look beyond the less important details, and directly identify the source of trouble. They've been known to promptly resolve perplexing matters - while the uninformed remain stuck.
So many more managers could gain the benefit of TOC thinking... if they only took the time. Eli Schragenheim now offers an informative and enjoyable self-learning method, proving how TOC can be invaluable at a wide variety of workplaces.
Management Dilemmas: The Theory of Constraints Approach to Problem Identification and Solutions conveys TOC methods through "virtual experience"-stories of managers and the situations they need to resolve. Take note of the dilemmas they're facing. Think about how you would respond under those circumstances. Then, compare your reactions with Schragenheim's TOC-influenced analysis.
Associated with Dr. Eli Goldratt (the founder of TOC) for seven years, Schragenheim doesn't tell how the stories end. Instead, he encourages the reader to try out TOC techniques-especially the need to arrive at the most precise answer by raising the right questions. The conclusions you reach today could greatly help your on-the-job thinking tomorrow!

Managerial Decision Making is an essential and insightful title that brings together classic articles on the subject of behavioral decision research. Professor Don Moore has selected the seminal articles that are the cornerstone of a discipline that has exploded in both productivity and influence. It covers Herbert Simon's groundbreaking work on bounded rationality, as well as important papers on anchoring, the bias of framing, the problem of overconfidence, the preference for fairness, emotional influences and the strengths and weaknesses of human intuitive judgement. This research review will appeal to a wide readership as decision research plays an important role in such diverse areas as business, marketing, law, finance, medicine and public policy.

In recent years, there has been increasing implementation of group and team decision-making within organizations, much of it managed electronically, between members of what are "virtual" groups or teams. Recent research into effective team implementation emphasizes "trust" as an intermediary process, and trust must be a part of any account of team decision-making. This book provides an integrated framework that represents process in decision-making by interactive groups and teams. This framework furthers both our understanding of process and our capabilities in implementation, based on an account of group decision-making that differentiates the information types contributing to decision quality and relates them to process in interactive groups and teams. Author Steve Silver emphasizes the social structure that is inherent in the interaction of decision-makers as group or team members and effects on the information they exchange.

Inflation is here. Do you know how it's impacting your company? It's not just a matter of rising costs. Inflation eats cash, squeezes margins, threatens working capital, and throws all your great forecasts and plans into question. Its effect is cumulative and pervasive. Yet this period of economic discontinuity is a huge opportunity to come out stronger for those who know how to lead in the face of inflation and a looming recession. Ram Charan has guided hundreds of companies through many tough business challenges. In the early 1980s, he helped GE preserve its teetering credit rating in the face of double-digit inflation. Now, in Leading Through Inflation, he brings the same common sense and wisdom that made his book Execution, coauthored with Larry Bossidy, a long-time New York Times bestseller. This book will be your guide to avoiding the hazards of inflation while positioning your company to thrive when the business cycle stabilizes. It provides Ram's down-to-earth recommendations and real-world examples to help you navigate a landscape that may be new to you. As you learn to lead through inflation, you will be better prepared for recession and stagflation as well. You will know how to protect your cash, your customers, and your capital investments. Your psychology will shift from anxiety and fear to optimism and excitement as you define the path to a reimagined future.

Young children start school already able to do a surprising amount of mathematics. This book examines the nature and origin of subject knowledge and is based on information gathered from observing the interactions between teachers and their first-year pupils. It demonstrates the necessity of the classroom teacher to draw on many kinds of knowledge in order to deal with various issues surrounding classroom learning and teaching. Two important core areas are knowledge of lesson structure and of subject matter; this book address the area of subject matter and, as such, it should be of interest to classroom teachers and lecturers in education.

If you aren't using the term "naturalistic decision making, " or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing.
Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes.
This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

The year 2012 was the 40th anniversary of the publication of Cohen, March, and Olsen's influential article "The Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice", which offered a major new perspective on organizational decision making. To celebrate this enduring paradigm, its impact on our understanding of organizational decision making, and the broad streams of research it has influenced, this collection of papers provides a rich demonstration of the influence that the GCM is continuing to have on current research. The chapters make original contributions to research on organizational decision making by developing new models and theoretical extensions based on or inspired by prior garbage can work, by applying garbage can concepts and interpretations to new problems and novel settings. The book includes a paper from Cohen, March and Olsen, who record their memories of initial encounters with garbage can ideas of organizational decision making, impressions of their current condition, and some thoughts on convolutions they may experience in the years ahead.

Creativity directly impacts results and productivity, yet few of us understand how it happens or how to put it into practice. This book shows you not only how to get things done, but how to do them better and more creatively. The Creative Thinking Handbook provides the correct application for creative thinking and action, by offering clear, practical tools and strategies so that you can develop creative thinking skills and help find brilliant solutions for any professional challenge. Based on research and proven-to-work creative thinking models, Chris Griffiths and Melina Costi present a clear introduction to what creative thinking is, explain why we all need to do it and will help you generate ideas and make better decisions. The Creative Thinking Handbook gets you to think differently by thinking creatively.

Offering an approach outside the mainstream of Management of Technology (MOT) thought, the objective of this text is to inform decision-makers, policy-makers and educators/students about the range of management technology, policies and programmes in each region.

Offering an approach outside the mainstream of Management of Technology (MOT) thought, the objective of this text is to inform decision-makers, policy-makers and educators/students about the range of management technology, policies and programmes in each region.

Winner of best smart thinking book 2022 (Business Book Awards) Guardian best books of 2021 'Original, thought-provoking and a joy to read' Tim Harford 'Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book' Rutger Bregman When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a 'soldier' mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalising in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don't. But if we want to get things right more often we should train ourselves to think more like a scout. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world - which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think. 'With insights that are both sharp and actionable, The Scout Mindset picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often' Adam Grant

First published in 1994. Mission Statements: A Guide to the Corporate and Nonprofit Sectors offers the most exciting opportunities for advancing the study of organization direction in the four decades that it has been actively pursued. The study of missions of organizations has remained on the "back burner" of scholarly pursuits because of the great difficulty that researchers have faced in gathering appropriate formal statements from corporations and nonprofit organizations. As a result, the importance of missions to distinguish among organizations and to guide the development and execution of implementing strategies has become a nearly universally endorsed but unenthusiastically practiced element in organizational planning activities. This information laden new book by John Graham and Wendy Havlick invites managers and academic researchers to undertake the study of missions with greater expectations that much can be learned about the organizations, their leaders, and their strategies through a comprehensive assessment of their written statements of values and priorities.

An incredible ability awaits managers who practice Theory of Constraints (TOC) techniques: they can take a problem, look beyond the less important details, and directly identify the source of trouble. They've been known to promptly resolve perplexing matters - while the uninformed remain stuck. So many more managers could gain the benefit of TOC thinking... if they only took the time. Eli Schragenheim now offers an informative and enjoyable self-learning method, proving how TOC can be invaluable at a wide variety of workplaces. Management Dilemmas: The Theory of Constraints Approach to Problem Identification and Solutions conveys TOC methods through "virtual experience"-stories of managers and the situations they need to resolve. Take note of the dilemmas they're facing. Think about how you would respond under those circumstances. Then, compare your reactions with Schragenheim's TOC-influenced analysis. Associated with Dr. Eli Goldratt (the founder of TOC) for seven years, Schragenheim doesn't tell how the stories end. Instead, he encourages the reader to try out TOC techniques-especially the need to arrive at the most precise answer by raising the right questions. The conclusions you reach today could greatly help your on-the-job thinking tomorrow!

This title was first published in 2001. This volume brings together the 25-year output of the longest running programme of research into the making of decisions by top management. It describes and explains the processes of arriving at major decisions and how they are affected by the issue under decision, the form of organization and national differences and then, finally, success and failure in implementation. The programme continues with research on routes in successfully managing implementation.