Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

Most people have some idea what Greeks and Romans coins looked like, but few know how complex Greek and Roman monetary systems eventually became. The contributors to this volume are numismatists, ancient historians, and economists intent on investigating how these systems worked and how they both did and did not resemble a modern monetary system. Why did people first start using coins? How did Greeks and Romans make payments, large or small? What does money mean in Greek tragedy? Was the Roman Empire an integrated economic system? This volume can serve as an introduction to such questions, but it also offers the specialist the results of original research.

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When General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy in 2009 and immediately targeted thousands of dealerships for closure, tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars were on the line. Staring down two of the largest manufacturers in the world - as well as President Obama's Automotive Task Force - a determined triumvirate of car dealers banded together and went to Washington, D.C. to make their voices heard. Alan and Alison Spitzer's fast-paced memoir takes readers behind the scenes as "citizen's lobbyists" traverse throughout all of the major corridors of power in the nation's capital to make their case and bring justice to thousands of small business across the country.

Tracing the monetary history of Europe, this study explores the impact of change in the availability and use of bullion, in the form of money, on the economic evolution of Europe. The Romans fostered economic prosperity through the accumulation of bullion and circulation of accredited currency. Over time, shortages of species rendered the Roman coinage worthless. As a result, commercial activities contracted, causing the breakdown of the Roman economic and political systems. Lack of liquidity in the early Middle Ages limited commercial activities, and promoted conditions sustaining dependency on land, thereby enabling feudalism to flourish. In the late 10th century, discovery of rich silver mines in Central Europe increased the circulation of coinage, promoting trade and demographic urbanization. The augmentation of silver resources continued to boost economic prosperity during the 12th and 13th centuries. In the 14th century, decrease in mine output induced severe scarcity of bullion. Lack of currency caused the contraction of economic activities, leading to food shortages, famines, depopulation, and the eventual breakdown of the feudal economic order. Continuous shortage of bullion in the 15th century forced the reintroduction of barter trade and limited commercial activities. Scarcity of precious metals induced the Portuguese to venture into Africa. African gold provided them with the incentive and capital for expeditions of discovery to the East, but the lack of sufficient bullion prevented them from monopolizing the eastern trade. In the 16th century the influx of species from the mines of central Europe and America ended the European bullion famine and gave rise to economicprosperity.

How did Europe get to monetary union in 1999 and how will EMU work out? Are the member countries starting in good shape and is the European Central Bank going to be a success? Should the UK enter EMU too, and if so when and how? This book provides a stocktaking of the process of European monetary integration as of early 1999 - at the start of European Monetary Union and twenty years after the creation of the European Monetary System. Based upon the first academic conference on the subject since the start of EMU by the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group and bringing together leading academics, researchers and policy-makers - including members of the European Central Bank - the book assesses recent experiences and evaluates likely future developments.

Since the first edition of Foreign Exchange Options in 1993, trading in foreign exchange options has undergone rapid expansion and now accounts for a daily turnover of some $100 billion world-wide. This revised and expanded second edition takes into account recent changes in both market practice and regulatory requirements and contains many new explanatory diagrams and practical examples.
As with the first edition, the emphasis is on practicality, taking the reader through the basics, clarifying jargon when and where appropriate. This book will be invaluable for accountants, auditors, experienced practitioners and those entering the world of currency options for the first time.
The benefits of using options to hedge foreign exchange riskDetailed examination of both the OTC market and the main exchange listingSpecific coverage of pricing, trading risk and market practice

This analysis of Israel's successful stabilisation programme challenges current thinking on macroeconomic policy. It reviews and examines the take-off of runaway inflation and of the subsequent stabilisation policy in what can be seen as laboratory conditions. Since Israel's stabilisation policy is one of only two which have actually succeeded, it offers important lessons to all East European and many Latin American countries in the design and implementation of these programmes. Professional economists concerned with macroeconomics, money, credit and banking, monetary and banking theory, economic policy, and inflation and stabilisation, as well as Latin American and East European scholars, should find this work extremely informative.

This book is about exchange rate regime choice. The role played by the exchange rate in the economy is demonstrated, then the pros and cons of fixed and flexible rates are discussed. The classification of exchange rate regimes is examined from theoretical, practical and historical perspectives. Macroeconomic performance under various exchange rate regimes is assessed, followed by a survey of models of exchange rate regime choice. Some factual case studies are presented and related to the theoretical foundations, including the choice of exchange rate regime in the post-conflict case of Iraq.

This timely book provides a comprehensive analysis of the post-war evolution of financial markets and financial regulation in Japan, with special emphasis being placed on the period since 1975. Max Hall, a leading specialist in financial regulation, provides a full and detailed coverage of the causes and nature of the recent liberalization of financial markets adopted in Japan as well as its consequences for public policy. He also examines the recent reforms of Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan, and offers an in-depth discussion of the current weaknesses of the Japanese banking sector. By providing a critical overview of the local financial system and detailed discussion of the evolution of financial markets in Japan, the book sheds new light on the institutional problems at the heart of the current crisis. The politics, as well as the economics, of the financial liberation programme are scrutinised to provide a comprehensive analysis of financial reform.

The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s resulted in a transition to fluctuating rather than fixed currency system. This brought sterling into the turmoil of the world currency markets, and by the end of the 1970s, sterling had quietly ended its role as an international currency. Sterling-dollar diplomacy collapsed, bringing to an end what had hitherto been considered Britain's prime relationship. Britain and European Monetary Cooperation, 1964-1979 provides a unique perspective on these events, shedding light on the complexities of the historical context of British monetary diplomacy and exploring the country's attempt at a European approach to sterling in the 1960s and '70s. The book describes the political and economic approach Britain took at the turn of the 1970s, and explains how the country became restricted by the burden of the sterling balances. In this book, the author illustrates how these developments offered opportunity for both cooperation and conflict in the light of monetary diplomacy. He demonstrates how Britain's struggle to achieve exchange rate stability, twinned with controversy over European Economic Community membership, finally prompted serious reconsideration of economic policy-making. This book challenges the commonly-held perception of the decline of sterling, and explains that, although Britain's attempt at a European approach failed, the decline of the currency was more complicated than a 'managed decline'.

Price theory has provided solutions to myriad problems affecting society without invoking any precepts beyond those encapsulated in the standard economic postulate. Fiscal theory, meanwhile, has been closely attentive to the political, sociological and historical circumstances that bear upon the fiscal act. This methodological duality has resulted in the development of fiscal theory in line with the political culture espoused by its originator, usually the one prevailing at home. Thus emerges the need for an analysis of the evolution of fiscal thought along national lines.

Khan presents a new theory of financial crises in the age of globalization from an evolutionary perspective and suggests policies that may be necessary for averting or managing new financial crises. Starting with the Asian financial crises, he identifies new types of financial crises that result from a combination of liberalization, weak domestic institutions for economic governance and a chaotic global market system without global governance institutions. Suggested solutions involve building new institutions for global and domestic governance and domestic and international policy reforms.

This book examines the reforms of banking in Eastern Europe, which are a key element of the transition to the market in those economies. Particular emphasis is placed on the "bad domestic bank debt" problem. The book also analyzes the development of capital markets in Eastern Europe, and their role in attracting foreign flows, with case-studies on the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland.;Contributions are from senior policy-makers and academics from Central and Eastern Europe who are involved in the reforms.

Professor Graziano's study, the first attempt to investigate the impact of human cognitive processes on our understanding of money supply, promises to shake up the fiscal establishment and bring down a number of cherished shibboleths. Using the conceptual tools of cognitive psychology, Professor Graziano subjects our monetary beliefs, measurements, and communications to an incisive, original analysis that may overturn current ideas about the way money supply should be measured and reported and thus affect a broad range of financial/investment decisions.

This volume provides a treatment of "endogenous money" and its relationship to finance. It compares American post-Keynesian and French circulation school as two ways of analyzing money in the economy.;In analyzing money, contemporary economics has focused its attention on money's function as a store of value, neglecting its role as medium of circulation. When circulation is put centre-stage, it becomes apparent that the supply of money does indeed adapt to the needs of trade - and does so in many different ways, often ways that are difficult for a central bank to control, because they reflect the responses of banks and other financial institutions to market incentives. But money's role in circulation must be co-ordinated with its store of value function, and both with finance. Failure here can lead to instability.;The essays in this volume cover these issues in contrasting analyses, presenting the American post-Keynesian perspective, on the one hand, and the point of view of the French circulation school, on the other.

This book is one of the first works studying foreign exchange exposure in emerging markets. The analysis takes a broad approach and concludes with a tool that multinatonal companies can apply to improve the effectiveness of their risk management activities against variations in the exchange rate as well as other business risks

The recession which many countries experienced in the early 1990s had certain unusual aspects. Most notably, and common to all countries, was the behaviour of asset prices relative to the general price level. In consequence, reasons were sought to explain the special characteristics of the recession and as a result of the behaviour of asset prices attention turned to 'Debt-Deflation Theories' associated in different forms with Keynes and Irving Fisher. The contributors to this volume discuss the significance of debt deflation. Their striking common feature is that, on the evidence presented here, the behaviour of asset prices should not be of great concern to policy makers, or to those attempting to understand economic behaviour. However, residual doubts remain over the Japanese case.

This text brings together a number of research studies, all of which examine the behaviour of foreign exchange rates. The main focus of the collection is on empirical characterization of high-frequency exchange rate data. The pioneering studies demonstrate and explain, amongst other things, the regular patterns in intra-day foreign exchange rate activity, the effects of macroeconomic news of rates and analyze the profitability of technical trading rules in these markets. The collection should be of use to students, academics and practitioners who are interested in exchange rate dynamics.

The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World: Expect the Unexpected provides an informed, research-based in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 crisis, its impacts on households, nonfinancial firms, banks, and financial market participants, and the effectiveness of the reactions of governments and policymakers in the United States and around the world. It provides reflections and perspectives on the social costs and benefits of various policies undertaken and a toolkit of preventive measures to deal with crises beyond the COVID-19 crisis. Authors Allen N. Berger, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, and Raluca A. Roman apply their expertise to the research and data on the COVID-19 economic crisis as well as draw on their own rich research experience. They take a holistic approach that compares and contrasts this crisis with other economic and financial crises and assesses economic and financial behavior and government policies in the booms before crises and the aftermaths following them, as well as the crises themselves. They do all this with a keen eye on “Expecting the Unexpected” future crises, and policies that might anticipate them and provide better outcomes for society.

The idea that each country should have one currency is so deeply rooted in people's minds that the possibility of multiple and concurrent currencies seems unthinkable. Monetary systems contribute to problems of high unemployment and social distress during financial and economic crisis, so reforms to increase the responsiveness and flexibility of the monetary system can be part of the solution. This book discusses 'monetary plurality', which is the circulation of several currencies at the same time and space. It addresses how multiple currency circuits work together and transform socio-economic systems, particularly by supporting economies at the local level of regions and cities. The book shows that monetary plurality has been ubiquitous throughout history and persists at present because the existence of several currency circuits facilitates small-scale production and trade in a way that no single currency can accomplish on its own. Monetary plurality can improve resilience, access to livelihoods and economic sustainability. At the same time, it introduces new risks in terms of economic governance, so it needs to be properly understood. The book analyses experiences of monetary plurality in Europe, Japan, and North and South America, written by researchers from East and West and from the global North and South. Replete with case studies, this book will prove a valuable addition to any student or practitioner's bookshelf.

EMU - A Swedish Perspective provides a comprehensive and up-to-date survey of the EMU project. The main advantages and disadvantages of a single currency are evaluated. A key feature of the analysis is the attempt to integrate economic and political aspects. The book is a revised version of the report by the Swedish Government Commission on the EMU. Although the analysis focuses on the consequences for Sweden of joining versus not joining the monetary union, it is highly relevant for the discussion in all EU countries. The book provides an in-depth analysis of how the demands on economic policy will be affected by the monetary union. Various chapters discuss monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, unemployment and labour markets, the transition to monetary union, and the exchange-rate arrangements between participants and non-participants. Other chapters analyse the importance of the EMU for European political integration, democratic aspects, and how membership in the monetary union will affect the possibilities for an individual member state to exert influence within the EU. EMU - A Swedish Perspective should be of interest to professional economists and political scientists, students, and all others who want to form an opinion about the monetary union on the basis of a balanced assessment of the consequences. EMU - A Swedish Perspective provides a comprehensive and up-to-date survey of the EMU project. The main advantages and disadvantages of a single currency are evaluated. A key feature of the analysis is the attempt to integrate economic and political aspects. The book is a revised version of the report by the Swedish Government Commission on the EMU. Although the analysis focuses on the consequences for Sweden of joining versus not joining the monetary union, it is highly relevant for the discussion in all EU countries.

The Bundesbank is one of the world's most powerful and successful central banks, outstanding for its independence in the conduct of monetary policy and for its success in the achievement of relative price stability virtually throughout the post-war era. This collection of essays by the President of the Bundesbank, by former and present Board members and by Heads of Department within the Bundesbank offer a rare inside insight into its operations. The individual contributions to this volume explain the historical, legal and institutional basis of German internal and external monetary policy and highlight the goals of the German central bank and its role in the economy as a whole. The role of the Deutschmark as one of the leading international transaction, reserve and investment currencies is discussed in detail. Students of monetary management and the banking community throughout the world will benefit greatly from a study of this unique volume.

The creation of the EMU and the introduction of the Euro is a historic event for the EU countries. The debates on the desirability of the EMU provoked a vast economic literature dealing with the theory of the optimum currency area, costs and benefits of the EMU, symmetric versus asymmetric shocks, alternative mechanisms of adjustment in a monetary union and so forth. Until recently, for the Central European candidate countries for a full membership in the EU, these issues seemed to be too far away, as they concentrated on devising their own monetary and exchange rate systems suitable for their transition period. The challenges of the EMU for the Central European countries have scarcely been dealt with in both Western and Eastern economic literature. Inclusion of Central European Countries in the European Monetary Union aims to fill this gap, by focusing on the most direct issue of relevance for the Central European countries with respect to the EMU - why, how and when these countries are expected to join the EMU. The papers included in this volume study the relationship between the EU accession process of the Central European candidate countries and their involvement in the process of European monetary integration. The book focuses on two main issues. First, are these countries - now or possibly later - a part of the European optimum currency area so that they should belong to the Euro area in the near future? Second, if so, how and when should they undertake necessary adjustments in their monetary and exchange rate policies and join the ERM 2 and the EMU?

This volume contains papers on issues concerning applications of monetary policy in several countries from the perspectives of writers who work in both academic settings and for central banks. The first paper investigates the usefulness of money as indicator of future spending and inflation in the United Kingdom. The next paper provides insights into the operation of the independent Banque de France and compares them to the operation of other central banks. It provides an overview of the common issues that central banks deal with and a brief historic sketch of how the current objective of price stability evolved as the overriding objective of US and European central banks. Other topics include: a summary of historical developments in the Bank of Israel; an examination of whether there is a monetary aggregate useful as a target for real output for Korea; and an examination of the long-run neutrality of money.