Inspired by the experience of some advanced economies, a number of emerging market economies have recently adopted rules limiting the budget deficit, expenditure level, or indebtedness of the public sector, while others consider them for eventual adoption. This volume brings together policy analysts to discuss the rationale, suitability, and usefulness of fiscal policy rules in emerging market economies. Grouped under three main parts (political economy and macroeconomic setting; design issues at the national level; design issues at the subnational level), the chapters have a practical orientation, based on conceptual grounding. FABRIZIO BALASSONE Bank of Italy, Italy OLAV BJERKHOLT University of Oslo, Norway MIGUEL BRAUN University of San Andres, Colombia MARCO BUTI European Commission, International ANDRES CONESA Secretariat of Finance, Mexico FABRIZIO CORICELLI University of Siena, Italy ALLAN DRAZEN Tel Aviv University, Israel VALERIO ERCOLANI University of Siena, Italy DANIELE FRANCO Bank of Italy, Italy GABRIELE GIUDICE European Commission, Italy ILAN GOLDFAJN Central Bank of Brazil, Brazil CHRISTIAN Y. GONZALEZ Georgetown University, USA EDUARDO R. GUARDIA State of Sao Paulo

The logic behind European monetary cooperation and integration can only be understood through an examination of French efforts to maximize their monetary power in relation to Germany and America. This book provides a detailed and historically-informed study of the motives and economic and political attitudes that shaped French policy on European developments over a 30-year period, from the collapse of the International Monetary System in the late 1960s and early 1970s through to the start of EMU on January 1, 1999.

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, countries in East Asia have made efforts to promote regional monetary and financial cooperation to complement the evolving international financial architecture. This increased interest in regional monetary and financial cooperation has resulted in several initiatives - the ASEAN Surveillance Process, the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Process including its Chiang Mai Initiative of 2000, the Manila Framework Group and the Asia-Europe Finance Ministers Process to name a few. These developments in some ways represent a significant break from the past. Going forward the key challenge is how to set priorites and sequence developments so as to smooth the path to a new regional financial architecture. This two-volume set takes up the issue of developing a road map of policy options, both at the regional and country levels, for carrying forward the ongoing efforts in monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia. Building on a series of core reports and background papers by eminent economists and policymakers around the world commissioned under an ADB technical assistance project, the books explore what is feasible and desirable in regional monetary and financial cooperation and lays out a road map for putting the concept into action over the next several years. Volume 1 contains an overview by Peter Montiel, and three core studies by Olam Chaipravat, Eric Girardin, and Takatoshi Ito and Yung-Chul Park. Volume 2 contains background papers by Robert J. Barro; Elbliog'onore Boiscuvier and Alfred Steinherr; Barry Eichengreen; Jeffrey A. Frankel; Eric Girardin; Jong-Wha Lee; Yung-Chul Park and Kwanho Shin; Ronald McKinnon; Eiji Ogawa, Takatoshi Ito, and YuriNagataki Sasaki; Ramkishen Rajan and Reza Siregar; Yunjong Wang and Wing Thye Woo; and Charles Wyplosz. The volumes and the study on which they were based were conceptualized, supervised, and coordinated by Pradumna B. Rana and Srinivasa Madhur.

In the late 1980s, as the empirical appeal of macro-economic exchange rate models began to fade, a few people including Professor Charles Goodhart at the London School of Economics and researchers at Olsen & Associates in Zurich, started to collect intra-daily exchange rate data. The resulting database provides new insight into the foreign exchange markets and thereby opens up previously unexplored avenues of research. Intra-Daily Exchange Rate Movements presents an extensive study of the Olsen & Associates database and is one of the first monographs in this exciting new area. This book aims to provide a systematic study of the characteristics of intra-daily exchange rate data as well as an empirical investigation into different approaches of modelling the exchange rate movements. First, the author describes empirical insights, which range from the distributional issues of exchange rate data to the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and institutional characteristics. This leads to a survey of the main stylized facts. Using the O&A database, Guillaume then presents a systematic investigation of the empirical performance of three broad categories of models: macro-economic models using an extension of chaos theory, stochastic models including the GARCH and time-deformation models, and technical analysis. The book shows how these approaches can be used to model intra-daily exchange rate movements and highlights some of the pitfalls inherent in such an exercise. In an area where literature remains controversial, this book hopes to trigger further inquiries into the suitability of these different approaches to modelling.

This book provides an analysis of the global economic crisis from an Asian perspective. It examines the impacts of the policy measures adopted, the remaining challenges in rebalancing the global economy, the next steps in regional economic integration in Asia, and issues related to reform of the international financial architecture.

"Euro on Trial looks back - to the aspirations of the founders - and forward - to the possibility of reform or splitting up. After five years of experience with the new currency, new insights are possible into the old arguments for and against union. Monetary union is reversible in part or in whole and this book assesses the costs and benefits. Brown examines several mainstream scenarios for the future of the euro in these essential readings for market practitioners as well as academics. For example, how long will the euro survive? The author shows that the answer depends principally on Germany. Any of the small or medium-sized economies could leave monetary union without threatening its existence. But were Germany to pull out it is highly doubtful whether there would be a core of countries that would perserve inside. Germany's membership so far has brought much disappointment. How many more years of disillusion are required before the question of EMU reform or break-up enters the mainstream of German political debate?

This book is based on the conference "EMU and the Outside World," held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), December 11, 1998. The conference was organized by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF), which is supported jointly by the ETH and the Swiss Society for Business Cycle Research (SGK), an organization comprising representatives from private industry, the Swiss National Bank and public authorities. On the eve of the final stage of European Economic and Mone tary Union (EMU), Zurich seemed to be a particularly appropriate place for such a conference. On the one hand, given its location and economic and financial links with the euro area, Switzerland is one of the "outside coun tries" most affected by EMU. On the other hand, it was nowhere else than in Zurich where the vision of "a United States of Europe" was expressed for the first time by Winston Churchill in his speech on September 19, 1946. For many EMU is a step in that direction, whether welcome or not. Most of the papers appearing in this volume were presented at the con ference and have been revised and updated. Three contributions, chapter 11- 13, were commissioned specially for this publication. Besides the authors of the chapters, special thanks are due to Guido Boller, Robert McCauley, Umberto Schwarz, and Charles Wyplosz."

Since the inflationary 1970's, studies of monetary policy have concentrated almost exclusively on price-level stabilization and the avoidance of nominal shocks. In the aftermath of the collapse of financial bubbles in various parts of the world, the accomplishments and limitations of this dominant approach are debated in this volume edited by Axel Leijonhufvud, with contributions by a number of monetary economists, including Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas.

Review: 'Fiat currency central banks claim to fight the inflation they cause, and likewise to offset the financial instability and systemic risk they create. The depreciation of the currencies they issue at will often cause falls in foreign exchange value, goods and services inflation, or asset price inflations. Of these, asset price inflations are the most insidious, for while they last they are highly popular, leading people to think they are growing rich and to run up their debt. When the asset inflations collapse, the central banks can come as the fire department to the fire they stoked. Nobody is better at diagnosing and dissecting these central bank games than Brendan Brown, whether it is the Federal Reserve (The Global Curse of the Federal Reserve) or the European Central Bank - this book, Euro Crash. It will give you a healthy boost in your scepticism about those who pretend to be the Platonic guardians of the financial system.' - Alex J. Pollock, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC; former president and chief executive officer, Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago.

This book presents theoretical and empirical analyses of the new developments in exchange rate regimes in developing countries since the 1990s. It addresses a variety of exchange rate regimes from hard peg to floating and their impact in regions such as East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe.

This book looks at the banking and finance industries in Italy and how these industries contribute to the Italian economy. Could these industries be the solution to the contradiction in which the country's economy has been caught for several years? The economy is better governed than it has been in the past, but is not growing as much as it could. The book looks at how this solution might be achieved and what factors will govern the contribution of the banking and finance industries.

This volume explores the consumer perspectives of the introduction of the Euro. In 1996, the European Commission set up a Euro Working Group, which brought together all the families of consumers' associations and is responsible for providing the Commission with reasoned opinions on consumer policies and measures. In 1997, they were joined by a team of psychologists, sociologists and experts in people's attitudes to money, of various nationalities. Their task was to take a closer look at all the psychosociological issues related to the Euro and, wherever possible, to draw practical conclusions about the measures to be taken in order to facilititate the changover to the Euro for the various population groups. The task had to be organised in such a way as to answer three questions: What is the changeover to the euro? What is a currency? What is a consumer?A/LISTA The inter-disciplinary group of experts tackled this whole gamut of problems and issues. Their work, in cooperation with the commission's departments (the Directorate-General for Consumer Policy, DGXXIV) and the Euro Working Group of the Consumer Committee, considerably influenced the decisions of the Community authorities. The dossier presented here is an edited selection of the reports prepared by members of this group, covering the reports on an extremely wide range of questions. All these reports are available from DGXXIV. Furthermore, this book contains the main sections of the report prepared by the Euro Working Group of the Consumer Committee, which served as an important point of departure for the experts' work and is repeatedly referred to in their articles.

Why do governments prefer to limit themselves to a specific inflation target? Specialists and senior officials of the European Central bank, the OECD and national central banks look beyond inflation targeting as the goal of monetary policy. Among the contributing, Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell surveys the history and prospects of the sovereignty of the state over money, while Michael Bordo and Lars Jonung use data of 14 industrialized countries to show relationships between fiscal and monetary regimes.

Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

Most people have some idea what Greeks and Romans coins looked like, but few know how complex Greek and Roman monetary systems eventually became. The contributors to this volume are numismatists, ancient historians, and economists intent on investigating how these systems worked and how they both did and did not resemble a modern monetary system. Why did people first start using coins? How did Greeks and Romans make payments, large or small? What does money mean in Greek tragedy? Was the Roman Empire an integrated economic system? This volume can serve as an introduction to such questions, but it also offers the specialist the results of original research.

When General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy in 2009 and immediately targeted thousands of dealerships for closure, tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars were on the line. Staring down two of the largest manufacturers in the world - as well as President Obama's Automotive Task Force - a determined triumvirate of car dealers banded together and went to Washington, D.C. to make their voices heard. Alan and Alison Spitzer's fast-paced memoir takes readers behind the scenes as "citizen's lobbyists" traverse throughout all of the major corridors of power in the nation's capital to make their case and bring justice to thousands of small business across the country.

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How did Europe get to monetary union in 1999 and how will EMU work out? Are the member countries starting in good shape and is the European Central Bank going to be a success? Should the UK enter EMU too, and if so when and how? This book provides a stocktaking of the process of European monetary integration as of early 1999 - at the start of European Monetary Union and twenty years after the creation of the European Monetary System. Based upon the first academic conference on the subject since the start of EMU by the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group and bringing together leading academics, researchers and policy-makers - including members of the European Central Bank - the book assesses recent experiences and evaluates likely future developments.

Tracing the monetary history of Europe, this study explores the impact of change in the availability and use of bullion, in the form of money, on the economic evolution of Europe. The Romans fostered economic prosperity through the accumulation of bullion and circulation of accredited currency. Over time, shortages of species rendered the Roman coinage worthless. As a result, commercial activities contracted, causing the breakdown of the Roman economic and political systems. Lack of liquidity in the early Middle Ages limited commercial activities, and promoted conditions sustaining dependency on land, thereby enabling feudalism to flourish. In the late 10th century, discovery of rich silver mines in Central Europe increased the circulation of coinage, promoting trade and demographic urbanization. The augmentation of silver resources continued to boost economic prosperity during the 12th and 13th centuries. In the 14th century, decrease in mine output induced severe scarcity of bullion. Lack of currency caused the contraction of economic activities, leading to food shortages, famines, depopulation, and the eventual breakdown of the feudal economic order. Continuous shortage of bullion in the 15th century forced the reintroduction of barter trade and limited commercial activities. Scarcity of precious metals induced the Portuguese to venture into Africa. African gold provided them with the incentive and capital for expeditions of discovery to the East, but the lack of sufficient bullion prevented them from monopolizing the eastern trade. In the 16th century the influx of species from the mines of central Europe and America ended the European bullion famine and gave rise to economicprosperity.

This book is about exchange rate regime choice. The role played by the exchange rate in the economy is demonstrated, then the pros and cons of fixed and flexible rates are discussed. The classification of exchange rate regimes is examined from theoretical, practical and historical perspectives. Macroeconomic performance under various exchange rate regimes is assessed, followed by a survey of models of exchange rate regime choice. Some factual case studies are presented and related to the theoretical foundations, including the choice of exchange rate regime in the post-conflict case of Iraq.

The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s resulted in a transition to fluctuating rather than fixed currency system. This brought sterling into the turmoil of the world currency markets, and by the end of the 1970s, sterling had quietly ended its role as an international currency. Sterling-dollar diplomacy collapsed, bringing to an end what had hitherto been considered Britain's prime relationship. Britain and European Monetary Cooperation, 1964-1979 provides a unique perspective on these events, shedding light on the complexities of the historical context of British monetary diplomacy and exploring the country's attempt at a European approach to sterling in the 1960s and '70s. The book describes the political and economic approach Britain took at the turn of the 1970s, and explains how the country became restricted by the burden of the sterling balances. In this book, the author illustrates how these developments offered opportunity for both cooperation and conflict in the light of monetary diplomacy. He demonstrates how Britain's struggle to achieve exchange rate stability, twinned with controversy over European Economic Community membership, finally prompted serious reconsideration of economic policy-making. This book challenges the commonly-held perception of the decline of sterling, and explains that, although Britain's attempt at a European approach failed, the decline of the currency was more complicated than a 'managed decline'.

Price theory has provided solutions to myriad problems affecting society without invoking any precepts beyond those encapsulated in the standard economic postulate. Fiscal theory, meanwhile, has been closely attentive to the political, sociological and historical circumstances that bear upon the fiscal act. This methodological duality has resulted in the development of fiscal theory in line with the political culture espoused by its originator, usually the one prevailing at home. Thus emerges the need for an analysis of the evolution of fiscal thought along national lines.

Khan presents a new theory of financial crises in the age of globalization from an evolutionary perspective and suggests policies that may be necessary for averting or managing new financial crises. Starting with the Asian financial crises, he identifies new types of financial crises that result from a combination of liberalization, weak domestic institutions for economic governance and a chaotic global market system without global governance institutions. Suggested solutions involve building new institutions for global and domestic governance and domestic and international policy reforms.

This analysis of Israel's successful stabilisation programme challenges current thinking on macroeconomic policy. It reviews and examines the take-off of runaway inflation and of the subsequent stabilisation policy in what can be seen as laboratory conditions. Since Israel's stabilisation policy is one of only two which have actually succeeded, it offers important lessons to all East European and many Latin American countries in the design and implementation of these programmes. Professional economists concerned with macroeconomics, money, credit and banking, monetary and banking theory, economic policy, and inflation and stabilisation, as well as Latin American and East European scholars, should find this work extremely informative.

Professor Graziano's study, the first attempt to investigate the impact of human cognitive processes on our understanding of money supply, promises to shake up the fiscal establishment and bring down a number of cherished shibboleths. Using the conceptual tools of cognitive psychology, Professor Graziano subjects our monetary beliefs, measurements, and communications to an incisive, original analysis that may overturn current ideas about the way money supply should be measured and reported and thus affect a broad range of financial/investment decisions.