It is widely recognized that wholesale electricity markets tend to
be prone to the exercise of market power. The exercise of market
power has antisocial impacts in the liberalised electricity
markets. It results in inefficient short-term dispatch outcomes,
and affects the efficiency of longer-term generation investment
decisions. And thus, it results in power price rises and
substantial wealth transfers between electricity customers and
generators. Electricity market regulators around the world tend to
be interested in mechanisms for predicting marker power ex ante and
detecting and controlling the exercise of market power ex post. The
common indices of ex ante market power indicators however, mostly
disregard transmission constraints, variation of wind farms'
capacities, and dynamics of electric power systems. This paper
carries out a probabilistic study of market power using an index
termed Probabilistic Transmission-Constrained Pivotal Supplier
Indicator (Probabilistic TC-PSI). Two probabilistic approaches (a)
Monte Carlo Method (MCM), and (b) Two-Point Estimation Method
(T-PEM) are employed in the probabilistic study and then compared
to each other.
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