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Books > Business & Economics > Business & management > Management & management techniques > Project management
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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Hardcover)
Loot Price: R2,252
Discovery Miles 22 520
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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Hardcover)
Series: Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting
Expected to ship within 12 - 17 working days
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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in
the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part
way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are
somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed
to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh
Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth
from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative
in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the
major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation
as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of
multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most
common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and
Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools
are 'black boxes' and too few estimators and forecasters really
appreciate what is happening inside the 'black box'. This volume
aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to
be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that
often creates a misinformed misconception of 'it must be right!'
Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine
Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times
and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and
tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers,
accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost
engineering.
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