Iran today is still struggling with the legacy of its own
Islamic revolution, and is deeply divided between the moderates who
enjoy broad public support and the conservatives who control the
levers of power. The mixed policies that result are reflected in
Iran's ambivalent military posture. In recent years, Iran has only
conducted a limited build-up of its armed forces and has cut
defense spending and arms imports. On the other hand, Iran has
developed a carefully focused program that threatens shipping in
the lower Gulf and the world's oil exports. It has strengthened its
capability for unconventional warfare and continues to be a
significant proliferator, setting up indigenous military industries
and developing a greater ability to import weapons. In this
authoritative analysis of interest to Middle Eastern specialists
and military affairs experts alike, Anthony Cordesman concludes
that the continuation of Iran's current defensive security posture
depends as much on these economic factors as on the outcomes of
domestic political rivalries.
Iran may eventually limit any military expansion to a necessary
defensive strength and set strategic goals for itself that are
compatible with the legitimate interests of other nations, or it
may choose a more aggressive course. Regardless of the ultimate
outcome, argues Cordesman, it does no good to either demonize or
excuse Iranian policies. Instead, the United States and other
nations with interests in the Middle East and Central Asia need to
deal realistically with Iran as a reemerging regional power.
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