In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the
interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear
forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both
conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures
for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he
believes, may help some future decision maker avoid
catastrophe.
Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force,
he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless
accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but
rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at
the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical
study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the
1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international
relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.
The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west
competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military
competitions between states armed with both conventional and
nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that
attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding
regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers
can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes,
unwarranted.
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