The American vice presidency, as the saying goes, 'is not worth a
bucket of warm spit.' Yet vice presidential candidates, many people
believe, can make all the difference in winning-or losing-a
presidential election. Is that true, though? Did Sarah Palin, for
example, sink John McCain's campaign in 2008? Did Joe Biden help
Barack Obama win? Do running mates actually matter? In the first
book to put this question to a rigorous test, Christopher J. Devine
and Kyle C. Kopko draw upon an unprecedented range of empirical
data to reveal how, and how much, running mates influence voting in
presidential elections. Building on their previous work in The VP
Advantage and evidence from over 200 statistical models spanning
the 1952 to 2016 presidential elections, the authors analyze three
pathways by which running mates might influence vote choice. First,
of course, they test for direct effects, or whether evaluations of
the running mate influence vote choice among voters in general.
Next, they test for targeted effects-if, that is, running mates win
votes among key subsets of voters who share their gender, religion,
ideology, or geographic identity. Finally, the authors examine
indirect effects-that is, whether running mates shape perceptions
of the presidential candidate who selected them, which in turn
influence vote choice. Here, in this last category, is where we see
running mates most clearly influencing presidential
voting-especially when it comes to their qualifications for holding
office and taking over as president, if necessary. Picking a
running mate from a key voting bloc probably won't make a
difference, the authors conclude. But picking an experienced,
well-qualified running mate will make the presidential candidate
look better to voters---and win some votes. With its wealth of data
and expert analysis, this finely crafted study, the most
comprehensive to date, finally provides clear answers to one of the
most enduring questions in presidential politics: can the running
mate make a difference in this election?
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