"Frank C. Zagare combines a deep command of historical
scholarship and the sophisticated skills of an applied game
theorist to develop and test a theory of why deterrence failed,
catastrophically, in July 1914. . . . Zagare concludes with sage
advice on how to avoid even more cataclysmic breakdowns in a
nuclear world."
---Steven J. Brams, New York University
"Zagare's deft study of the origins of the First World War using
his perfect deterrence theory uncovers new insights into that
signal event and shows the value of formal theory applied to
historical events. A must-read for those interested in security
studies."
---James D. Morrow, University of Michigan
"Through an exemplary combination of formal theory, careful
qualitative analysis, and lucid prose, The Games of July delivers
important and interesting answers to key questions concerning the
international political causes of World War I. Its well-formed
narratives and its sustained engagement with leading works in IR
and diplomatic history . . . make it a rewarding read for security
scholars in general and a useful teaching tool for international
security courses."
---Timothy W. Crawford, Boston College
Taking advantage of recent advances in game theory and the
latest historiography, Frank C. Zagare offers a new, provocative
interpretation of the events that led to the outbreak of World War
I. He analyzes key events from Bismarck's surprising decision in
1879 to enter into a strategic alliance with Austria-Hungary to the
escalation that culminated in a full-scale global war. Zagare
concludes that, while the war was most certainly unintended, it was
in no sense accidental or inevitable.
"The Games of July" serves not only as an analytical narrative
but also as a work of theoretical assessment. Standard realist and
liberal explanations of the Great War are evaluated along with a
collection of game-theoretic models known as perfect deterrence
theory.
Frank C. Zagare is UB Distinguished Professor of Political
Science at the State University of New York at Buffalo.
Cover illustration: Satirical Italian postcard from World War I.
Used with permission from The University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill Libraries.
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