The Great War or the "War to end all wars" as promised by President
Woodrow Wilson was neither great nor ultimately conclusive.
Precipitated by the assassination of the Austro- Hungarian Archduke
Franz Ferdinand and his wife in the streets of Sarajevo on June 28,
1914, World War I demolished the order established by the Concert
of Vienna, an order that had maintained the peace in Europe for
almost a century. The ensuing carnage laid the foundation for World
War II and the Cold War that followed.
World War I also left in its catastrophic wake three
transformational legacies that remain largely unnoticed today.
These legacies have provoked and will continue to provoke massive
change to the international order. But containing, mitigating, and
preventing these disruptions from exploding into major crises will
prove no less difficult a challenge than did restraining the forces
that ignited the chaos and violence of the last century.
These legacies would make Osama bin Laden into a modern day
version of Gavrilo Princip, the Archduke's assassin, and turn
September 11, 2001 into an event like that one on June 28, 1914, in
many different and frightening ways. Instead of using a Beretta 9
mm pistol, bin Laden crashed three airliners into New York's Twin
Towers and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., starting a global war
on terror.
Unfortunately, America's current strategic mindset to deal with
the twenty-first century remains firmly anchored in the previous
century. That mindset must change if aspirations for peace and
prosperity are to be met with decisive and effective actions.
Ullman offers provocative and challenging arguments to conventional
wisdom--that we fail to understand the challenges and dangers and
lack a mindset to cope with these twenty-first-century realities.
He argues that while the dangers are not as destructive as a world
war, unless they are addressed, at best the standard of living and
expectations of Americans will decline, and at worst, the world
will become more violent, unpredictable, and chaotic.
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