Although the United States efforts to prevent the spread of
strategic weapons have varied significantly since 1945, they all
presumed to be avoiding one or another type of strategic war. To
the extent their military scenarios were sound, so too were the
nonproliferation remedies these initiatives promoted. But, as
Sokolski demonstrates, the obverse was also true--when these
intiatives' military hopes and fears were mistaken, their
nonproliferation recommendations also missed their mark.
What is the best hope for breaking out of this box and securing
a higher rate of nonproliferation success? The United States must
base nonproliferation policies less on insights concerning
strategic military trends and more on the progressive economic and
political trends that have increased the number of relatively
peaceful, prosperous, liberal democracies. For the proliferating
nations that are exceptions to this trend, the U.S. and its allies
need to devise ways of competing that will encourage these
governments to expend more energies shoring up their weaknesses and
eventually giving way to less militant regimes. A major resource
for students and military professionals interested in arms control
and international relations.
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