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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
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Foresight in Action - Developing Policy-Oriented Scenarios (Hardcover)
Loot Price: R2,300
Discovery Miles 23 000
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Foresight in Action - Developing Policy-Oriented Scenarios (Hardcover)
Series: Earthscan Risk in Society
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Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions.
One of the most widespread approaches is the development of
scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has
indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about
employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a
finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting
images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need
for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive
five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the
future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in
action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare
for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made.
It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public
policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business
practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism,
the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and
what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of
recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to
reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and
thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and
challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision
making.
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