Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in
Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering
approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes
methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for
risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of
risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary
mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily
on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry,
because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since
PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special
attention to explaining uncertainty characterization.
The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and
principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the
elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering.
After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author
describes how to assess and measure performance ofthe building
blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems,
structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers
methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating
them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the
results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and
sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and
performance assessment models. It also includes a description of
risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making
decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The
book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and
methods of risk communication.
Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he
has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor
Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk
assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use
for students and professors alike.
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