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Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education (Hardcover)
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Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education (Hardcover)
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Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long
patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently
nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the
Northeast and Midwest-traditional higher education
strongholds-expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged
populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in
response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In
2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college
campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15
percent in just 5 years. In Demographics and the Demand for Higher
Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education
Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education
Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of
college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand
forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by
demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year
colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future
demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on
institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for
example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than
15 percent in future years. Essential for administrators and
trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student
support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic
planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming
enrollment challenges.
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