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Capital Flows, Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa - The Role of Global Economic Growth, Policy Shifts and Uncertainties (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2019)
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Capital Flows, Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa - The Role of Global Economic Growth, Policy Shifts and Uncertainties (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2019)
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This book examines the dynamics in capital flows, credit markets
and growth in South Africa. The authors explore the role of global
economic growth, policy shifts and various economic policy
uncertainties. Central banks in advanced economies are engaged in
unconventional monetary policy tools such as balance sheet
policies, negative interest rates and extended forward guidance to
assist them to meet their price, financial and macro-economic
stability objectives. This book determines whether BRICS GDP growth
is a source of shocks or an amplifier of global growth shocks. The
authors find that global economic growth and policy uncertainty
reinforce each other via capital flows, credit conditions and
business confidence on the domestic economy. Furthermore, they
demonstrate that there is momentum in the changes in the spread
between the repo rate and federal funds rate. In addition, global
real policy rates impact domestic GDP growth and labor market
conditions. The authors examine the economic costs of capital flow
surges, sudden stops and elevated portfolio volatility shocks and
their interaction with GDP growth and credit. They show that equity
and debt inflows matter in the attainment of the price stability
mandate. Moreover, business confidence transmits sovereign credit
ratings upgrades and downgrades shocks to the real economy via GDP
growth, the cost of government debt and borrowing to impact credit
growth. High GDP growth increases the likelihood of sovereign
credit ratings upgrades, hence policymakers should implement
pro-growth policies. Inflation regimes impact the transmission of
positive nominal demand shocks to the price level. Low and stable
inflation (inflation below 4.5 per cent) reduces the pass-through
of positive nominal demand shocks to inflation.
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