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Books > Business & Economics > Business & management > Management & management techniques > Management decision making
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Verbal Decision Analysis for Unstructured Problems (Hardcover, 1997 ed.)
Loot Price: R2,797
Discovery Miles 27 970
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Verbal Decision Analysis for Unstructured Problems (Hardcover, 1997 ed.)
Series: Theory and Decision Library C, 17
Expected to ship within 18 - 22 working days
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A central problem of prescriptive decision making is the mismatch
between the elegant formal models of decision theory and the less
elegant, informal thinking of decision makers, especially when
dealing with ill-structured situations. This problem has been a
central concern of the authors and their colleagues over the past
two decades. They have wisely (to my mind) realized that any viable
solution must be informed by a deep understanding of both the
structural properties of alternative formalisms and the cognitive
demands that they impose on decision makers. Considering the two in
parallel reduces the risk of forcing decision makers to say things
and endorse models that they do not really understand. It opens the
door for creative solutions, incorporating insights from both
decision theory and cognitive psychology. It is this opportunity
that the authors have so ably exploited in this important book.
Under the pressures of an interview situation, people will often
answer a question that is put to them. Thus, they may be willing to
provide a decision consultant with probability and utility
assessments for all manner of things. However, if they do not fully
understand the implications of what they are saying and the use to
which it will be put, then they cannot maintain cognitive mastery
of the decision models intended to represent their beliefs and
interests.
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