The Long Telegram 2.0: A Neo-Kennanite Approach to Russia lays out
an original argument for understanding Russia that goes deep into
its history, starting with the tri-partite dictum "orthodoxy,
autocracy, nationality," formulated in 1833 by count Sergey Uvarov.
The author explores Uvarov's triad in the context of modern Russia,
adding five more traits: exceptionalism, expansionism, historical
primordialism, worship of the military, and glorification of
suffering. The author argues that, as presently constituted, Russia
cannot become a democracy, and, sooner than later, it will
disintegrate, replicating the fate of the Soviet Union. The key
reasons for these, according to the author, are: weak mechanisms
for the transition of power, poorly developed institutions of the
state, feeble economy and education, frail ideology, and, most
importantly, the lack of a unified national identity. Following
this assessment, the author defines a strategy for dealing with
Russia, based on a combination of offensive realism and
realpolitik, recommending that the West copes with Russia in a more
pragmatic manner. The book includes the author's translation of a
unique historical document from the 1860s: a pamphlet calling for
the independence of Siberia on the example of the American
revolution.
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