Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change.
Century-long periods of population expansion come before long
periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror
population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist
phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical
instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov
explore the dynamics and causal connections between such
demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian
societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term
oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.
"Secular Cycles" elaborates and expands upon the
demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone,
which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book
tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by
tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages,
elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical
instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England,
France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods,
and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating
theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a
specific model of historical change and, more generally,
investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in
historical applications.
An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety
of social scientists, "Secular Cycles" will interest practitioners
of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and
demography.
General
Is the information for this product incomplete, wrong or inappropriate?
Let us know about it.
Does this product have an incorrect or missing image?
Send us a new image.
Is this product missing categories?
Add more categories.
Review This Product
No reviews yet - be the first to create one!