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Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback)
Loot Price: R269
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Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction (Paperback)
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List price R330
Loot Price R269
Discovery Miles 2 690
You Save R61 (18%)
Expected to ship within 9 - 15 working days
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The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an
uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking,
Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve
our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves
forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new
house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married,
our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things
are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.
In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock
showed that the average expert was only slightly better at
predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork.
Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded
forecasting tournament involving over a million individual
predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people
with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from
former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have
an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of
accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In
Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a
fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group.
They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable
them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with
access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how
we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in
business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
_________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set
out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what
the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A
terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly
recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on
predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to
this indispensable activity.' The Times
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