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Taming Uncertainty (Hardcover)
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Taming Uncertainty (Hardcover)
Series: The MIT Press
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An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple
with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate
uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and
predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high
complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues
that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with
uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and
economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real
minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to
uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors
propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for
dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three
types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search,
and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of
strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions
constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these
three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they
argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the
environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental
change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed
through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit
between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal
with such specific instances of decision making as food choice
architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty,
pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
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