Given the political, financial, social, and economic conditions
inherited from Communist rule, Romania's new government concluded
that a shock therapy approach to reform would create unmanageable
chaos and enduring instability. Though committed to economic
liberalization, decisionmakers espoused a gradualist approach to
economic reform. The government pursued its objectives by
implementing policies it considered functionally operational.
Although Romania experienced the macro dislocations and downturns
that are common in transitional economies in the region, the
country sustained shallower recessions, lower inflationary spirals,
and shorter production losses than many reforming economies. This
study analyzes how, against calculated probabilities and within a
relatively short time period, Romania has stabilized and assembled
all the basic ingredients for a successful transformation from a
centralized system to a market-driven economy.
The lessons derivable from Romania's relatively successful
experiment with systemic transformation could be beneficial to
reform architects in all newly liberalized economies in Eastern
Europe. The conclusions of this study reinforce the view that it is
imperative to examine and foster the existing preconditions,
including political, institutional, and financial components,
before subjecting an economy to extensive and intensive shocks that
could be judiciously mitigated or circumvented. Unlike other newly
liberalized economies in Eastern Europe, where the once disgraced
Communists have returned to power, sympathy for a centralized
system has been steadily and swiftly declining in Romania. The
primary factor in Romania's success, the author claims, is its
circumspect approach to reform.
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