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Epistemic Risk and the Demands of Rationality (Hardcover)
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Epistemic Risk and the Demands of Rationality (Hardcover)
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How much does rationality constrain what we should believe on the
basis of our evidence? According to this book, not very much. For
most people and most bodies of evidence, there is a wide range of
beliefs that rationality permits them to have in response to that
evidence. The argument, which takes inspiration from William James'
ideas in 'The Will to Believe', proceeds from two premises. The
first is a theory about the basis of epistemic rationality. It's
called epistemic utility theory, and it says that what it is
epistemically rational for you to believe is what it would be
rational for you to choose if you were given the chance to pick
your beliefs and, when picking them, you were to care only about
their epistemic value. So, to say which beliefs are permitted, we
must say how to measure epistemic value, and which decision rule to
use when picking your beliefs. The second premise is a claim about
attitudes to epistemic risk, and it says that rationality permits
many different such attitudes. These attitudes can show up in
epistemic utility theory in two ways: in the way you measure
epistemic value; and in the decision rule you use to pick beliefs.
This book explores the latter. The result is permissivism about
epistemic rationality: different attitudes to epistemic risk lead
to different choices of prior beliefs; given most bodies of
evidence, different priors lead to different posteriors; and even
once we fix your attitudes to epistemic risk, if they are at all
risk-inclined, there is a range of different priors and therefore
different posteriors they permit.
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