The First World War left a legacy of chaos that is still with us a
century later. Why did European leaders resort to war and why did
they not end it sooner? Roger L. Ransom sheds new light on this
enduring puzzle by employing insights from prospect theory and
notions of risk and uncertainty. He reveals how the interplay of
confidence, fear, and a propensity to gamble encouraged aggressive
behavior by leaders who pursued risky military strategies in hopes
of winning the war. The result was a series of military disasters
and a war of attrition which gradually exhausted the belligerents
without producing any hope of ending the war. Ultimately, he shows
that the outcome of the war rested as much on the ability of the
Allied powers to muster their superior economic resources to
continue the fight as it did on success on the battlefield.
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