With the rapid deterioration of the U.S. trade balance in the
1980s, the United States was forced to finance deficits by
borrowing heavily from the rest of the world. In doing so, the
United States went from being the world's largest creditor country
to the world's largest debtor, while Japan and West Germany
experienced a rise in trade surpluses. Such a shift in
international trade flows has had profound effects on the world
economy. McKibbin and Sachs address a range of issues involving
macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. Through the use of a
new simulation model of the world economy they explore how policy
actions undertaken in one country affect the trade flows and
macroeconomic patterns among the other counties. The authors show
that key macroeconomic features of the 1980s can be explained by
shifts in monetary and fiscal policies in the major economies and
by supply shocks due to changes in oil prices. In addition to
showing how the global macroeconomic experience can be understood,
they focus on a number of current policy issues, including the
reduction of global trade imbalances, the consequences of U.S.
fiscal consolidation, the effects of an oil price shock, the
implications for the U.S. economy of increases in Japanese and
German fiscal spending, the effects of targeting exchange rates
among the major currencies, and the gains of increased coordination
of macroeconomic politics among the major economies. In several
cases, their conclusions are shown to be quite different from those
that form the basis of many conventional views. The authors also
analyze the importance of interaction between policymakers in
industrial economies and conclude by reemphasizing the need for
U.S. politicians and policy experts to recognize that macroeconomic
results in the U.S. now depend heavily on events abroad.
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