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This book analyzes a series of decisions by leaders of three major
terrorist organizations and identifies a unique "Decision DNA" for
each of them. The authors use the Applied Decision Analysis
methodology to examine organizational and operational decisions
made by the leaders of three major groups: Hezbollah (Hassan
Nasrallah), Hamas (Khaled Mashal), and al-Qaeda (Osama bin Laden).
Decisions that were of critical importance to each organization are
identified and anaylzed, to uncover the particular decision rule
employed by the leader in question and to establish their "Decision
DNA." A Decision DNA is unique to each leader and can be used to
explain previous decisions or predict future choices. The authors
demonstrate that the findings presented can be used to promote
effective counterterrorism measures, and they provide a series of
policy implications that arise from their examination of each
leader. This book will be of much interest to students of terrorist
studies, political violence, security studies, and Middle Eastern
politics.
This book presents an overview of the U.S. Department of Defense
(DoD) resource allocation issue, considering the period from 1948
to 1980. It describes the major characteristics of the DoD resource
allocation process and discusses the potential impact of various
shocks on the allocation system.
This book presents an overview of the U.S. Department of Defense
(DoD) resource allocation issue, considering the period from 1948
to 1980. It describes the major characteristics of the DoD resource
allocation process and discusses the potential impact of various
shocks on the allocation system.
This volume brings together leading scholars from the US, Europe
and Asia in search of new perspectives on and answers to questions
about how a country's defence burden might affect welfare provision
and economic growth, and vice versa. The essays examine and compare
the historical experiences of a variety of developed and developing
countries and include analyses of: - the link between defence
spending and economic performance in the United States - the causes
of Britain's relative decline - the institutional setting for
Japan's pursuit of comprehensive national security - the influence
of military spending on the developmental progress of Asia's newly
industrializing countries - the patterns of business cycles and
military hostility in the Middle East. The contributors offer new
insights and often surprising findings regarding the relationship
between defence burden and political economy. The essays are
therefore highly pertinent to the ongoing scholarly and policy
debates about the process of a peace dividend in the wake of the
Cold War s demise. This book should be of interest to postgraduates
of politics, international relations, international political
economy.
Why do presidents and their advisors often make sub-optimal
decisions on military intervention, escalation, de-escalation, and
termination of conflicts? The leading concept of group dynamics,
groupthink, offers one explanation: policy-making groups make
sub-optimal decisions due to their desire for conformity and
uniformity over dissent, leading to a failure to consider other
relevant possibilities. But presidential advisory groups are often
fragmented and divisive. This book therefore scrutinizes polythink,
a group decision-making dynamic whereby different members in a
decision-making unit espouse a plurality of opinions and divergent
policy prescriptions, resulting in a disjointed decision-making
process or even decision paralysis. The book analyzes eleven
national security decisions, including the national security policy
designed prior to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the decisions to
enter into and withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2007 "surge"
decision, the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program, the UN
Security Council decision on the Syrian Civil War, the faltering
Kerry Peace Process in the Middle East, and the U.S. decision on
military operations against ISIS. Based on the analysis of these
case studies, the authors address implications of the polythink
phenomenon, including prescriptions for avoiding and/or overcoming
it, and develop strategies and tools for what they call Productive
Polythink. The authors also show the applicability of polythink to
business, industry, and everyday decisions.
This collection of essays examines the political economy approach
to military spending, primarily by the United States. The articles
deal specifically with the relationships between defence spending
and: (a) political-business cycles, public opinion and the
US-Soviet relationship; (b) military action - ie war; (c) economic
performance - the trade deficit, guns versus butter issues and
fiscal policy.
Why do presidents and their advisors often make sub-optimal
decisions on military intervention, escalation, de-escalation, and
termination of conflicts? The leading concept of group dynamics,
groupthink, offers one explanation: policy-making groups make
sub-optimal decisions due to their desire for conformity and
uniformity over dissent, leading to a failure to consider other
relevant possibilities. But presidential advisory groups are often
fragmented and divisive. This book therefore scrutinizes polythink,
a group decision-making dynamic whereby different members in a
decision-making unit espouse a plurality of opinions and divergent
policy prescriptions, resulting in a disjointed decision-making
process or even decision paralysis. The book analyzes eleven
national security decisions, including the national security policy
designed prior to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the decisions to
enter into and withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2007 "surge"
decision, the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program, the UN
Security Council decision on the Syrian Civil War, the faltering
Kerry Peace Process in the Middle East, and the U.S. decision on
military operations against ISIS. Based on the analysis of these
case studies, the authors address implications of the polythink
phenomenon, including prescriptions for avoiding and/or overcoming
it, and develop strategies and tools for what they call Productive
Polythink. The authors also show the applicability of polythink to
business, industry, and everyday decisions.
Understanding how leaders make foreign policy and national security
decisions is of paramount importance for the policy community and
academia. Yet on their own, neither rational nor cognitive schools
of decision-making analysis offer totally convincing results, and
in any case, rigorous decision analysis methodologies are rarely,
if ever, applied to the decisions of world leaders. How Do Leaders
Make Decisions?: Evidence from the East and West, Part B, the
second in a two-part volume covering a total of ten world leaders,
fills this gap by using the Applied Decision Analysis (ADA) method
to explore how figures such as Putin, Erdogan, Khaled Mashal, Mao,
and Saddam Hussein make or made major decisions of international
significance. By analysing the decisions made by key political
figures around the world, past and present, the chapters gathered
here shed light on how they are reached and what policy
implications they have for their own and other nations. The
analyses are based on traditional and contemporary theories of
foreign policy decision making, including, but not limited to, the
rational actor model, the cybernetic theory of decision,
poliheuristic theory, and various decision rules, including the
elimination-by-aspect rule and the lexicographic decision rule.
Cumulatively, what these chapters uncover is that foreign and
national security policies can be best explained by tracing the
cognitive process leaders go through in formulating and arriving at
their decisions. For its groundbreakingly rigorous methodology and
its unprecedented scope, this book and its companion book are
essential reading for students, scholars, and policymakers alike.
Understanding how leaders make foreign policy and national security
decisions is of paramount importance for the policy community and
academia. This book explores how leaders such as Trump, Obama,
Netanyahu and others make decisions using the Applied Decision
Analysis (ADA) method. The chapters gathered here analyse the
decisions made by key political figures around the world, past and
present, in order to shed light on how these decisions are made and
what policy implications they have for their own and other nations.
Several chapters also focus on military decision making, including
around pivotal times in history including the second world war and
the evolution of nuclear warfare.
This book analyzes a series of decisions by leaders of three major
terrorist organizations and identifies a unique "Decision DNA" for
each of them. The authors use the Applied Decision Analysis
methodology to examine organizational and operational decisions
made by the leaders of three major groups: Hezbollah (Hassan
Nasrallah), Hamas (Khaled Mashal), and al-Qaeda (Osama bin Laden).
Decisions that were of critical importance to each organization are
identified and anaylzed, to uncover the particular decision rule
employed by the leader in question and to establish their "Decision
DNA." A Decision DNA is unique to each leader and can be used to
explain previous decisions or predict future choices. The authors
demonstrate that the findings presented can be used to promote
effective counterterrorism measures, and they provide a series of
policy implications that arise from their examination of each
leader. This book will be of much interest to students of terrorist
studies, political violence, security studies, and Middle Eastern
politics.
How and why do people make political decisions? This book is the
first to present a unified framework of the Behavioral Political
Science paradigm. - BPS presents a range of psychological
approaches to understanding political decision-making. The
integration of these approaches with Rational Choice Theory
provides students with a comprehensible paradigm for understanding
current political events around the world. Presented in
nontechnical language and enlivened with a wealth of real-world
examples, this is an ideal core text for a one-semester courses in
political science, American government, political psychology, or
political behavior. It can also supplement a course in
international relations or public policy.
Why does the academic study of international relations have limited
impact on the policy community? When research results are
inconsistent, inconclusive, and contradictory, a lack of scholarly
consensus discourages policy makers, the business community, and
other citizens from trusting findings and conclusions from IR
research. In New Directions for International Relations, Alex Mintz
and Bruce Russett identify differences in methods of analysis as
one cause of these problematic results. They discuss the problem
and set the stage for nine chapters by diverse scholars to
demonstrate innovative new developments in IR theory and creative
new methods that can lay the basis for greater consensus. Looking
at areas of concern such as the relationship between lawmaking and
the use of military force, the challenge of suppressing extremists
without losing moderates, and the public health effects of civil
conflict, contributors show how international relations research
can generate reliable results that can be, and in fact are, used in
the real world.
Multiple Paths to Knowledge in International Relations provides a
uniquely valuable view of current approaches and findings in
conflict studies. This volume showcases work informed by four
powerful research tools: rational choice theory and game theory;
simulation, experimentation, and artificial intelligence;
quantitative studies; and case studies. Each research method is
introduced and evaluated for its specific potential, including both
strengths and weaknesses. Throughout, the notable contributors
clearly explain how they choose, frame, and go about answering
questions. While expanding our knowledge of particular conflicts,
from the Crimean War to the Vietnam War to ongoing
Palestinian-Israeli instability, Multiple Paths also furthers our
understanding of how to conduct research in international
relations.
Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a decision
making approach to foreign policy analysis. This approach focuses
on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome, highlighting the
role of psychological factors in foreign policy decision making.
The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and
examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples,
which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by
leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland,
United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational
model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy
decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes
extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model,
the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases and
errors, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on
decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not
present such an approach to foreign policy decision making,
international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative
foreign policy.
Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a decision
making approach to foreign policy analysis. This approach focuses
on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome, highlighting the
role of psychological factors in foreign policy decision making.
The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and
examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples,
which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by
leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland,
United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational
model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy
decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes
extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model,
the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases and
errors, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on
decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not
present such an approach to foreign policy decision making,
international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative
foreign policy.
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