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This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It
presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate
demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and
require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts,
analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not
require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or
statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of
populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods
are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and
total population. The book contains more traditional applications
such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new
applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory.
Real world empirical examples are provided for every application;
along with excel files containing data and program code, which are
accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic
measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and
estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications
to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other
characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population
theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality
components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed
to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate
course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement
for other courses including applied demography, business and
economic forecasting and market research.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections. It describes the most commonly used
data sources and application techniques for four types of
projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation,
structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of
population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions,
the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of
forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of
various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique
problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors
provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market
analysts, and others called on to construct state and local
population projections. They use many examples and illustrations
and present suggestions for dealing with special populations,
unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They
describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to
another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing
age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related
variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the
role of judgment and the importance of the political context in
which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of
projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of
competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book
will provide readers with an understanding not only of the
mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods,
but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction,
interpretation, evaluation, and use.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections. It describes the most commonly used
data sources and application techniques within each of three
classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend
extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of
population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of
evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It
considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection
methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making
projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of
technological and methodological changes affecting the production
of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical
guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to
construct state and local population projections. They use many
examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with
special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or
unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one
set of projections to another and for interpolating between two
projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance
of the political context in which projections are made. They
emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for
decision making in a world of competing demands and limited
resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an
understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population
projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting
their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It
presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate
demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and
require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts,
analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not
require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or
statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of
populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods
are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and
total population. The book contains more traditional applications
such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new
applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory.
Real world empirical examples are provided for every application;
along with excel files containing data and program code, which are
accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic
measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and
estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications
to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other
characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population
theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality
components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed
to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate
course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement
for other courses including applied demography, business and
economic forecasting and market research.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections. It describes the most commonly used
data sources and application techniques for four types of
projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation,
structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of
population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions,
the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of
forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of
various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique
problems that characterize small-area projections.
The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners,
market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local
population projections. They use many examples and illustrations
and present suggestions for dealing with special populations,
unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They
describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to
another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing
age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related
variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the
role of judgment and the importance of the political context in
which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of
projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of
competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive
book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the
mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods,
but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction,
interpretation, evaluation, and use.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections. It describes the most commonly used
data sources and application techniques within each of three
classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend
extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of
population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of
evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It
considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection
methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making
projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of
technological and methodological changes affecting the production
of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical
guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to
construct state and local population projections. They use many
examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with
special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or
unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one
set of projections to another and for interpolating between two
projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance
of the political context in which projections are made. They
emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for
decision making in a world of competing demands and limited
resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an
understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population
projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting
their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
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