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This book explores the weak explanatory and predictive power of
theories across disciplines, explains reasons for limited expertise
after centuries of scientific effort, and sets forth strategies to
accelerate knowledge and manage a future we can only dimly
comprehend. Gaps in knowledge arose because common, natural and
artificial phenomena are fundamentally hard to understand, and in
expertise persists because research is unproductive. This book
argues that weak research comes with huge opportunity cost because
it stymies optimum decision making by government, corporations and
individuals. Research needs restructuring which must come from
governments' top down requirement that funding bodies foster
applied research with real-world impact, and that universities
influence scientific publishers to improve their publications'
integrity. This book seeks to catalyse extinction events for
theories in most disciplines, which would clear a path for solving
multiple crises in research. The author cautions that this process
would be disruptive, unpopular and painful.
This provocative book provides insight into a finance industry that
is run for the benefit of banks and service providers who rely on
Beatles-era theories and regulation which are totally unsuited to
the modern world. The author has a near-unique perspective based on
over 30 years of working - literally around the globe - for
corporates, fund managers and as finance academic. In his last role
his research has focused on investment decisions, and during 2012
he interviewed 34 fund managers in Istanbul, London, New York and
Melbourne. He blends rich understanding of finance theory and
practice to unravel the investment industry's structure and show
how banks and other finance institutions privilege themselves at
investors' expense. The book highlights that finance industry
self-regulation is weak. Risks from inexpertise, theft, bad data
and other sources are high. Regulation of the industry appears to
be ineffectual with the setting of such a high bar that it is
virtually impossible to successfully prosecute even the most
blatant and egregious offenders. The book closes with the simple
suggestion that corporations' regulations be altered to introduce
the strict liability offence of being a director or officer of a
large bank that becomes bankrupt. This follows the strategy of
legislation that has been effective in cleaning up the environment,
making workplaces safer and reducing crime by punishing those
responsible for an offence.
This provocative book provides insight into a finance industry that
is run for the benefit of banks and service providers who rely on
Beatles-era theories and regulation which are totally unsuited to
the modern world. The author has a near-unique perspective based on
over 30 years of working - literally around the globe - for
corporates, fund managers and as finance academic. In his last role
his research has focused on investment decisions, and during 2012
he interviewed 34 fund managers in Istanbul, London, New York and
Melbourne. He blends rich understanding of finance theory and
practice to unravel the investment industry's structure and show
how banks and other finance institutions privilege themselves at
investors' expense. The book highlights that finance industry
self-regulation is weak. Risks from inexpertise, theft, bad data
and other sources are high. Regulation of the industry appears to
be ineffectual with the setting of such a high bar that it is
virtually impossible to successfully prosecute even the most
blatant and egregious offenders. The book closes with the simple
suggestion that corporations' regulations be altered to introduce
the strict liability offence of being a director or officer of a
large bank that becomes bankrupt. This follows the strategy of
legislation that has been effective in cleaning up the environment,
making workplaces safer and reducing crime by punishing those
responsible for an offence.
At a time when unacceptable risk taking is rightly condemned, how
can organizations still benefit from the upside of risk? Can risk
still be good? Written by an author who has managed risk, teaches
about risk, but most importantly of all has researched the theory
of risk, this book will help senior executives dial up the right
level of risk within their organizations in order to enhance
performance. There are many risk management techniques that are
known to work and risk management has logged many successes, but
that doesn't mean managers understand why they work, how and why
risks arise, and how organizations can be shaped strategically to
optimize the benefits of well-judged business risks. Dr Les Coleman
argues that finance and management risk has been a theory-free
zone, similar to medicine in the Middle Ages, when physicians were
aware of surgical techniques and medicines that worked, but did not
know why and were impotent in the face of systemic illness. Today
risk managers face much the same situation: They know of techniques
that work such as audits, controls and procedure guides.
Nevertheless, they rarely anticipate, much less prevent, serious
failures. They have no comprehensive knowledge framework for
targeting optimum risk levels. This timely book fills some of that
gap with an outline of the nature and sources of risk in firms. It
sets out a body of risk knowledge to support its management,
particularly at the corporate level, in much the same way that our
understanding of human physiology and the physical sciences support
modern medical and engineering techniques. The reader will learn,
for example, how risk attitudes and outcomes flow through an
organization and about creative techniques such as asset-liability
management. In this area of corporate finance so critical for
executives and directors, Risk Strategies will help responsible
CFOs and other senior managers, together with teachers and students
of management, extend their knowledge and risk management skills.
This book explores the weak explanatory and predictive power of
theories across disciplines, explains reasons for limited expertise
after centuries of scientific effort, and sets forth strategies to
accelerate knowledge and manage a future we can only dimly
comprehend. Gaps in knowledge arose because common, natural and
artificial phenomena are fundamentally hard to understand, and in
expertise persists because research is unproductive. This book
argues that weak research comes with huge opportunity cost because
it stymies optimum decision making by government, corporations and
individuals. Research needs restructuring which must come from
governments' top down requirement that funding bodies foster
applied research with real-world impact, and that universities
influence scientific publishers to improve their publications'
integrity. This book seeks to catalyse extinction events for
theories in most disciplines, which would clear a path for solving
multiple crises in research. The author cautions that this process
would be disruptive, unpopular and painful.
The modern finance paradigm is incomplete. Obvious gaps include
poor performance of professional investors, puzzles enough in
equity markets to support a sub-discipline of behavioural finance
that patches over irrational biases and mispricings, and chronic,
but inexplicable, financial crises. As with so many other
disciplines, existing finance theory explains less than a tenth of
what we see in markets and investment. A new paradigm of investment
is needed. New Principles of Equity Investment brings together
robust scientific methodology with empirical evidence to propose a
new paradigm of equity investment. It begins with a wide-ranging
review of investor practices using mainly US and European research
and surveys, and then outlines the nature of investment risk, the
links between equity returns and institutional factors, and the
structure of equity markets. The result is a sophisticated
description of what we know is true about investment, and a frank
assessment of the limitations to investment expertise. The author
then presents a coherent, workable theory of equity prices that can
be applied in practice by equity investors, and explains logical
investor behaviours that have been thought of as biases. Written by
an academic with many years of practical investment experience,
this book will provide new insights for equity investors who are
looking for new perspectives and a better understanding of today's
complex markets.
Institutions now dominate trading in equities around the world.
Mutual funds are the most prominent, and doubly important as
custodians of retirement savings. Despite this, there is no
comprehensive description of fund manager behaviour, much less a
matching theory. This is troubling because one of the most
economically significant puzzles in finance is why experienced,
well-resourced fund managers cannot outperform the market. Applied
Investment Theory: How Equity Markets Behave, and Why brings
together academic research, empirical evidence and real market
experience to provide new insights into equity markets and their
behaviours. The book draws upon the author's rich industry
experience and academic research, plus over 40 interviews with fund
managers on three continents and across different markets. The
result is an innovative model that explains the puzzle of poor
performance by mutual funds in terms of structural features of
markets, the managed investment industry, and the conduct of fund
managers. This book provides a fully integrated depiction of what
markets and investors do, and why - insights that will resonate
with the needs of investors, wealth managers and industry
regulators. It is fully documented, but free of jargon and arcane
math, and provides a grounded theory that is relevant to anyone who
wants to pierce the opacity of mutual fund operations. Applied
Investment Theory sets out a new paradigm in investment that is at
the forefront of what should be an industrial-scale development of
new finance theory following two decades of almost back-to-back
financial crises.
The book answers a simple question: when managers and companies
face a decision with two outcomes that are safe and risky, what
leads them to choose the risky alternative? The answer starts with
a detailed review of the theory behind risk and decision making by
managers. The book then gathers real-world evidence using two
surveys of senior managers and directors to analyze why they take
risks, and how companies control risks.
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