This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting

Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world.

Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

Experten aus der Wissenschaft und Top-Manager der Buch-Branche analysieren in diesem Sammelband das Produkt Buch aus okonomischer Perspektive. Es werden Implikationen fur das Management anhand der Wertschopfungskette eines Buches abgeleitet. Ausserdem sollen die, durch neue Technologien implizierten Veranderungen der Branche aufgezeigt werden. Dabei wird insbesondere auf das Internet als Treiber dieses Wandels abgestellt.
Ein Standardwerk im Bereich der Buch-Branche, das die Gegebenheiten und Spielregeln des Marktes anschaulich und kompakt darstellt."

Top-Manager der Musikindustrie und Experten aus der Wissenschaft analysieren in diesem Sammelband die okonomischen Gegebenheiten der Musikindustrie und des Produkts Musik. Sie leiten Implikationen fur das Wertschopfungsmanagement von Musik ab und zeigen, wie das bisherige Geschaft der Musikindustrie durch neue Technologien systematisch erweitert wird."

Michel Clement untersucht die Wirkung potenzieller Akzeptanzfaktoren und ermittelt die Zahlungsbereitschaft fur Filme bei Video-on-Demand als Grundlage fur die Analyse und Prognose der Nutzung des Interaktiven Fernsehens.

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.