With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds out the full learning package.

Advances in data collection and data storage techniques have enabled marketing researchers to study the individual characteristics of a large range of transactions and purchases, in particular the effects of household-specific characteristics. This 2001 book presents important and practically relevant quantitative models for marketing research. Each model is presented in detail with a self-contained discussion, which includes: a demonstration of the mechanics of the model, empirical analysis, real world examples, and interpretation of results and findings. The reader of the book will learn how to apply the techniques, as well as understand the methodological developments in the academic literature. Pathways are offered in the book for students and practitioners with differing numerical skill levels; a basic knowledge of elementary numerical techniques is assumed.

This book is an ideal introduction for beginning students of econometrics that assumes only basic familiarity with matrix algebra and calculus. It features practical questions which can be answered using econometric methods and models. Focusing on a limited number of the most basic and widely used methods, the book reviews the basics of econometrics before concluding with a number of recent empirical case studies. The volume is an intuitive illustration of what econometricians do when faced with practical questions.

Although many of the models commonly used in empirical finance are linear, the nature of financial data suggests that non-linear models are more appropriate for forecasting and accurately describing returns and volatility. The enormous number of non-linear time series models appropriate for modeling and forecasting economic time series models makes choosing the best model for a particular application daunting. This classroom-tested advanced undergraduate and graduate textbook, first published in 2000, provides a rigorous treatment of recently developed non-linear models, including regime-switching and artificial neural networks. The focus is on the potential applicability for describing and forecasting financial asset returns and their associated volatility. The models are analysed in detail and are not treated as 'black boxes'. Illustrated using a wide range of financial data, drawn from sources including the financial markets of Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds out the full learning package.

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

Econometrics can at first appear a highly technical subject, but it can also equip the practitioner with a useful skillset of smart ways to formulate research questions and collect data. Enjoyable Econometrics applies econometric methods to a variety of unusual and engaging research questions, often beyond the realm of economics, demonstrating the great potential of using such methods to understand a wide range of phenomena. Unlike the typical textbook approach, Enjoyable Econometrics follows in the footsteps of Freakonomics by posing interesting questions first before introducing the methodology to find the answers. Therefore, rather than equation-heavy sections based around complex methodologies, the reader is presented with chapters on 'Money' and 'Fashion, Art and Music'. Franses writes in a way that will enthuse and motivate the economics student embarking upon the essential study of econometrics. Indeed, the book shows that econometric methods can be applied to almost anything.

Econometrics can at first appear a highly technical subject, but it can also equip the practitioner with a useful skillset of smart ways to formulate research questions and collect data. Enjoyable Econometrics applies econometric methods to a variety of unusual and engaging research questions, often beyond the realm of economics, demonstrating the great potential of using such methods to understand a wide range of phenomena. Unlike the typical textbook approach, Enjoyable Econometrics follows in the footsteps of Freakonomics by posing interesting questions first before introducing the methodology to find the answers. Therefore, rather than equation-heavy sections based around complex methodologies, the reader is presented with chapters on 'Money' and 'Fashion, Art and Music'. Franses writes in a way that will enthuse and motivate the economics student embarking upon the essential study of econometrics. Indeed, the book shows that econometric methods can be applied to almost anything.

This book is an ideal introduction for beginning students of econometrics that assumes only basic familiarity with matrix algebra and calculus. It features practical questions which can be answered using econometric methods and models. Focusing on a limited number of the most basic and widely used methods, the book reviews the basics of econometrics before concluding with a number of recent empirical case studies. The volume is an intuitive illustration of what econometricians do when faced with practical questions.

This book presents the most important and practically relevant quantitative models for marketing research. Each model includes a demonstration of the mechanics of the model, empirical analysis, real world examples, and an interpretation of results and findings. The reader will learn how to apply the techniques, as well as understand the latest methodological developments in the academic literature. Students and practitioners with differing numerical skills are guided through the book, although a knowledge of elementary numerical techniques is assumed.

This is the most up-to-date and accessible guide to one of the fastest growing areas in financial analysis by two of the most accomplished young econometricians in Europe. This classroom-tested advanced undergraduate and graduate textbook provides an in-depth treatment of recently developed nonlinear models, including regime-switching and artificial neural networks, and applies them to describing and forecasting financial asset returns and volatility. It uses a wide range of financial data, drawn from sources including the markets of Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

Nowadays applied work in business and economics requires a solid understanding of econometric methods to support decision-making. Combining a solid exposition of econometric methods with an application-oriented approach, this rigorous textbook provides students with a working understanding and hands-on experience of current econometrics. Taking a 'learning by doing' approach, it covers basic econometric methods (statistics, simple and multiple regression, nonlinear regression, maximum likelihood, and generalized method of moments), and addresses the creative process of model building with due attention to diagnostic testing and model improvement. Its last part is devoted to two major application areas: the econometrics of choice data (logit and probit, multinomial and ordered choice, truncated and censored data, and duration data) and the econometrics of time series data (univariate time series, trends, volatility, vector autoregressions, and a brief discussion of SUR models, panel data, and simultaneous equations). * Real-world text examples and practical exercise questions stimulate active learning and show how econometrics can solve practical questions in modern business and economic management. * Focuses on the core of econometrics, regression, and covers two major advanced topics, choice data with applications in marketing and micro-economics, and time series data with applications in finance and macro-economics. * Learning-support features include concise, manageable sections of text, frequent cross-references to related and background material, summaries, computational schemes, keyword lists, suggested further reading, exercise sets, and online data sets and solutions. * Derivations and theory exercises are clearly marked for students in advanced courses. This textbook is perfect for advanced undergraduate students, new graduate students, and applied researchers in econometrics, business, and economics, and for researchers in other fields that draw on modern applied econometrics.

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

An insightful and up-to-date study of the use of periodic models in the description and forecasting of economic data. Incorporating recent developments in the field, the authors investigate such areas as seasonal time series; periodic time series models; periodic integration; and periodic cointegration. The analysis from the inclusion of many new empirical examples and results. Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.

An insightful and up-to-date study of the use of periodic models in the description and forecasting of economic data. Incorporating recent developments in the field, the authors investigate such areas as seasonal time series; periodic time series models; periodic integration; and periodic cointegration. The analysis benefits from the inclusion of many new empirical examples and results.

This book provides a self-contained account of periodic models for seasonally observed economic time series with stochastic trends. Two key concepts are periodic integration and periodic cointegration. Periodic integration implies that a seasonally varying differencing filter is required to remove a stochastic trend. Periodic cointegration amounts to allowing cointegration paort-term adjustment parameters to vary with the season. The emphasis is on useful econrameters and shometric models that explicitly describe seasonal variation and can reasonably be interpreted in terms of economic behaviour. The analysis considers econometric theory, Monte Carlo simulation, and forecasting, and it is illustrated with numerous empirical time series. A key feature of the proposed models is that changing seasonal fluctuations depend on the trend and business cycle fluctuations. In the case of such dependence, it is shown that seasonal adjustment leads to inappropriate results.
About the Series
Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.