This book uses machine-learning to identify the causes of conflict from among the top predictors of conflict. This methodology elevates some complex causal pathways that cause civil conflict over others, thus teasing out the complex interrelationships between the most important variables that cause civil conflict. Success in this realm will lead to scientific theories of conflict that will be useful in preventing and ending civil conflict. After setting out a current review of the literature and a case for using machine learning to analyze and predict civil conflict, the authors lay out the data set, important variables, and investigative strategy of their methodology. The authors then investigate institutional causes, economic causes, and sociological causes for civil conflict, and how that feeds into their model. The methodology provides an identifiable pathway for specifying causal models. This book will be of interest to scholars in the areas of economics, political science, sociology, and artificial intelligence who want to learn more about leveraging machine learning technologies to solve problems and who are invested in preventing civil conflict.

This edited book demonstrates a new multidimensional comprehension of the relationship between war, the military and civil society by exploring the global rise of paramilitary culture. Moving beyond binary understandings that inform the militarization of culture thesis and examining various national and cultural contexts, the collection outlines ways in which a process of paramilitarization is shaping the world through the promotion of new warrior archetypes. It is argued that while the paramilitary hero is associated with military themes, their character is in tension with the central principals of modern military organization, something that often challenges the state's perceived monopoly on violence. As such paramilitization has profound implications for institutional military identity, the influence of paramilitary organizations and broadly how organised violence is popularly understood

This book explores the factors that account for military neutrality as a security strategy for small states. Through comparing the cases of Serbia and Sweden, who have both come to define their security policies in identicial terms of military neutrality/non-alignment, the book introduces a novel conceptual framework that is built against existing knowledge found in the small states and military neutrality literature. Drawing on different theoretical frameworks, the model explains why certain small states choose to stay outside of military alliances in the twenty-first century. The author then applies the new model to the two selected case studies.

Despite the appearance of political and military stability, Egypt may be standing at the edge of a precipice as the state remains grounded in rigid authoritarianism while the population, including a struggling civil society, readies itself to make the leap to democratization. This characterization has far-reaching implications for relations between citizens and the government, as well as Egypt's foreign affairs posture, particularly in the Middle East. State repression of civil, political, and religious actors, the ineffectual provision of social services, and two religious divides, between Coptic Christianity and Islam on the one hand, and secular and conservative Islamic traditions on the other, make for an incendiary domestic environment. The resulting over-reliance on security services to quash dissent could result in a population more amenable to less democratic methods of regime change and/or the development of stronger linkages between regional Islamist groups, whether they be political, militant, or some combination thereof.

"Global Security Watch--Egypt" explores the historical background that created the current realities in Egypt and examines the players and events influencing the nation today. It concludes with a series of recommendations for the Egyptian political establishment, and for the American government, in the belief that meaningful political and policy changes in Egypt can lead to an improvement in human rights, democracy, justice, stability, and security for Egypt, and an improved partnership between Egypt and the United States.

On September 10, 2001, the United States was the most open country in the world. But in the aftermath of the worst terrorist attacks on American soil, the U.S. government began to close its borders in an effort to fight terrorism. The Bush administration's goal was to build new lines of defense without stifling the flow of people and ideas from abroad that has helped build the world's most dynamic economy. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way.

Based on extensive interviews with the administration officials who were charged with securing the border after 9/11, and with many innocent people whose lives have been upended by the new security regulations, "The Closing of the American Border" is a striking and compelling assessment of the dangers faced by a nation that cuts itself off from the rest of the world.

The reality of the Arab-Israeli balance now consists of two subordinate balances: Israel versus Syria and Israel versus the Palestinians. The book analyzes these two balances in detail and their impact on defense planning in each country and on the overall strategic risk to the region as a whole. It covers military developments in each of six states-Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine-and provides an analytical view with charts and tables of how the changing natures of the military and political threats faced by each is impacting its military force readiness and development. The book has the most comprehensive data on past, current, and future military force structure currently available, drawn from the widest range of sources. Responding to the most recent of events in the region, this book is the first to deal with the effects on the Arab-Israeli military balance of the strategic uncertainty created by the Iraqi insurgency and the Iranian nuclear program. It also studies how the Gaza pullout, the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the changing political landscape in Israel, and the threat of nuclear proliferation are having impacts on the Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace accords and the prospects for a settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis. The roles of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are analyzed in light of the changing political landscape in both Israel and Palestine. Given the role of Syria in the Palestinian-Israeli affairs, the book also explores the ways that internal instability in Lebanon could escalate into a regional conflict.

This book presents sensemaking strategies to support security planning and design. Threats to security are becoming complex and multifaceted and increasingly challenging traditional notions of security. The security landscape is characterized as 'messes' and 'wicked problems' that proliferate in this age of complexity. Designing security solutions in the face of interconnectedness, volatility and uncertainty, we run the risk of providing the right answer to the wrong problem thereby resulting in unintended consequences. Sensemaking is the activity that enables us to turn the ongoing complexity of the world into a "situation that is comprehended explicitly in words and that serves as a springboard into action" (Weick, Sutcliffe, Obstfeld, 2005). It is about creating an emerging picture of our world through data collection, analysis, action, and reflection. The importance of sensemaking to security is that it enables us to plan, design and act when the world as we knew it seems to have shifted. Leveraging the relevant theoretical grounding and thought leadership in sensemaking, key examples are provided, thereby illustrating how sensemaking strategies can support security planning and design. This is a critical analytical and leadership requirement in this age of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity that characterizes the security landscape. This book is useful for academics, graduate students in global security, and government and security planning practitioners.

The Outcast Majority invites policymakers, practitioners, academics, students, and others to think about three commanding contemporary issues-war, development, and youth-in new ways. The starting point is the following irony: while Africanyouth are demographically dominant, many act as if they are members of an outcast minority. The irony directly informs young people's lives in war-affected Africa, where differences separating the priorities of youth and those of international agencies are especially prominent. Drawing on interviews with development experts and young people, Marc Sommers shines a light on this gap and offers guidance on how to close it. He begins with a comprehensive consideration of forces that shape and propel the lives of African youth today, particularly those experiencing or emerging from war. They are contrasted with forces that influence and constrain the international development aid enterprise. The book concludes with a framework for making development policies and practices significantly more relevant and effective for youth in areas affected by African wars and other places where vast and vibrant youth populations reside.